中国航空航天与国防 China (Overseas) Aerospace and National Defense

中国民营火箭入轨载荷记录刷新，国际巨头垂直一体化布局加速

China Breaks Private Rocket Orbital Payload Record, International Giants Accelerate Vertical Integration

陈子仪 Ziyi Chen

李加惠 Li Jiahui, CFA

ziyi.chen@htisec.com

jh.li@htisec.com


热点速评 Flash Analysis

(Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)

事件

• 2026年3月30日，中科宇航力箭二号液体运载火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区发射成功，该火箭为CBC通用助推器构型，近地轨道运力12吨，500km太阳同步轨道运力8吨，本次发射搭载3颗卫星、总载荷超4吨，刷新中国民营商业火箭单次发射载荷最高纪录。

• 2026年4月3日，天兵科技天龙三号大型可复用液氧煤油火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区首飞，火箭起飞后飞行异常，发射任务失利，该火箭对标SpaceX猎鹰9号，近地轨道设计运力17-22吨，一子级规划垂直回收复用，目前故障原因正在调查。

• 2026年3月30日，Rocket Lab收购德国卫星激光通信企业Mynaric的交易获得德国监管部门批准，该收购于 2025年启动，Mynaric为全球卫星激光通信核心器件供应商，收购完成后Rocket Lab实现火箭发射、卫星制造、星间激光通信的产业链整合。

• 2026年4月初，亚马逊启动对卫星通信公司Globalstar的收购洽谈，拟通过收购获取其在轨卫星、通信频谱及地面站资源，以推进其低轨卫星互联网项目Amazon Leo、与SpaceX星链形成竞争；此前苹果已入股Globalstar并锁定其大部分网络容量用于手机紧急卫星通信。

• 2026年4月2日，NASA阿尔忒弥斯2号任务由SLS火箭发射升空，搭载4名航天员执行绕月飞行任务，为人类自1972年阿波罗计划后时隔54年首次载人重返月球附近轨道，任务为绕月飞行、不实施登月与月球轨道驻留。

• 2026年4月7日，长征八号运载火箭在海南商业航天发射场点火起飞，以"一箭十八星"方式将千帆星座第七批组网卫星送入预定轨道，发射任务圆满成功。执行本次任务的长征八号为捆绑2个助推器的基本构型，700公里太阳同步轨道运载能力不低于5.5吨。

2026年4月9日，我国在太原卫星发射中心使用长征六号甲运载火箭，成功将卫星互联网低轨21组卫星发射升空，卫星顺利进入预定轨道，发射任务圆满成功。

点评

SpaceX给商业发射市场带来压力，正在倒逼中美两侧的商业航天参与者加速演进一一中国火箭运力与发射频次提升，美国巨头则借助资本整合加速向全栈系统提供商转型。

一、中国民营火箭：中型运力门槛突破，路线分化效应加速显现

力箭二号首飞成功，以CBC集束构型刷新中国民营火箭单次入轨载荷纪录，力箭二号目前不回收状态下单次发射成本降至3万元/公斤。

在本次发射中，中科宇航在商业确定性与研发风险之间选择稳中求进。采购已成功执行多次任务的YF-102发动机，以工程成熟度优先替代技术激进堆叠，对有明确在轨时间节点需求的卫星运营商而言，可预期的交付窗口本身即构成确定性溢价，预计将在后续商业合同谈判中得到量化体现。

而天兵科技选择了高收益高风险路径，近地轨道（LEO）运力17至22吨，火箭一级配置9台自研天火十二发动机并联工作，直接对标美国SpaceX的猎鹰9号运载火箭。天火十二发动机一次性集成四十余项关键技术创新，单次首飞的工程验证压力本已处于较高水位；猎鹰9号历经六次失败方才确立可靠性基准。

重点关注标的为蓝箭航天朱雀三号。在当前中国民营火箭梯队中，朱雀三号技术较为领先，搭载自研发动机成功入轨，回收试验接近回收场边缘。2026年计划执行二次回收试验，若回收验证成功，蓝箭将完成成本结构重塑，提高其竞争力。

二、低轨星座高频发射频次提升

48小时内长征八号与长征六号甲相继完成组网发射任务，中国商业航天发射基础设施具备高频稳定交付能力。长征八号"新三垂测发模式"将总装流程前移至发射区，长征六号甲14天测发周期在同级别运载火箭中处于全球第一梯队，未来周级发射密度的可实现性。自2024年8月首批卫星入轨以来，千帆星座已累计完成七次"一箭十八星"发射。垣信卫星董事长已公开确认年内实现全球初步覆盖目标。市场预计在轨规模达600颗后，预计可释放的商业订单体量约50亿元。

三、美国巨头：垂直整合提速，核心能力边界扩张驱动估值重构

Starlink已在低轨宽带服务市场建立起具有显著先发优势的运营壁垒，美国商业航天头部参与者的战略重心随之从发射能力竞争向全栈系统整合能力的构建加速迁移。

Rocket Lab收购Mynaric获监管批准，公司垂直整合更进一步。Rocket Lab近年来多次收购多家核心部件供应商，意在进一步推进发射、卫星和关键部件的一体化，走卖铲子+下矿双轮驱动路线。Rocket Lab通过完成这一并购，完善了全产业链闭环，为公司未来承接大规模商业星座项目以及中长期自营星座打下坚实能力基础。Rocket Lab的估值参照系应从纯发射服务商向航天系统集成商切换。

亚马逊拟议收购Globalstar的战略内核与之同构，但资产稀缺性维度更为突出。Amazon Leo在在轨规模与服务覆盖深度上相对Starlink仍存在显著差距，而Globalstar所持有的L/S频段许可证覆盖全球数十个监管辖区，属于无法通过新申请路径短期复制的稀缺监管资产。收购路径可绕开周期冗长的频谱申请流程，并借助Globalstar现有Direct-to-Cell网络基础设施填补消费终端直连服务的能力缺口。交易一旦完成，亚马逊将形成频谱资产、卫星网络、AWS云基础设施与消费终端的四层一体化能力架构，其战略演进路径与Starlink向综合通信基础设施延伸的逻辑高度对称。核心执行风险集中于苹果：约 85%的网络容量已受现有协议约束，容量安排的重构谈判构成交易落地的关键路径依赖，需持续追踪谈判进展。

结合当前美国市场在TACO宏观背景下的risk-on情绪切换，商业航天在本轮行情中有两条具有不同风险收益特征的结构性机会主线。

其一，中国方面，看好国内卫星和火箭供应链核心价值量环节。中国低轨卫星进入高密度组网阶段叠加运力的稳步提升，将驱动相控阵天线、激光通信终端、星上处理芯片、星敏感器等卫星关键器件和火箭关键器件需求提升。上述细分环节兼具技术壁垒高及国产自主可控逻辑清晰等特征。

其二，看好美国完成商业闭环的全栈整合平台的估值重构机会。Rocket Lab通过收购其供应商 Mynaric降低成本，并进一步深化作为系统集成商的角色，有望迎来估值重构。

风险

常态化商业复用运营不及预期；收购进展不及预期。


事件一：

2026年3月30日，中科宇航力箭二号遥一运载火箭（PR-2）在东风商业航天创新试验区首飞发射成功，本次发射搭载3颗卫星（新征程01卫星、新征程02卫星和天视卫星01星）、总载荷超4.2吨，刷新中国民营商业火箭单次发射载荷最高纪录。

点评：

力箭二号首发成功，实现民营火箭公司入轨重量的突破。

力箭二号总长53米，起飞重量625吨，起飞推力753吨，500公里太阳同步轨道运载能力8吨，200公里近地轨道运载能力12吨，整流罩直径4.2米，芯级直径3.35米，重复使用次数大于等于20次。本次任务成功发射轻舟初样试飞船，首飞任务直接服务于国家重大战略和重大工程建设，未来有望成为支持轻舟货运飞船等低成本货运、低轨卫星组网等任务的主力火箭。

本次首飞任务主要验证三大关键技术：

1、CBC构型应用技术：作为我国首款采用CBC（通用助推器核心）构型的火箭，在研制过程中攻克了大捆绑载荷结构设计技术，将火箭各主要部分设计为独立模块，实现不同模块的高效复用与灵活组合，后续使用相同模块拼积木多样组合的形式，可支持0/2/4个捆绑构型，即光杆或捆绑2/4个液体助推器的灵活配置，覆盖近地轨道2吨至20吨运力区间，并可实现集束式回收。

2、大直径光圆筒贮箱结构设计与制造工艺技术：力箭二号一二级贮箱筒段均采用了光筒结构形式，是我国轴压最大的光筒贮箱。相较于传统网格加筋结构形式制造成本大幅下降。

3、大型整流罩平抛分离技术：为了增大整流罩内部使用空间，力箭二号的整流罩采用了有别于传统旋抛分离的平抛分离技术，使用3套独立的气瓶+冷气推冲装置作为分离能源，实现了分离速度大于 5m/s。

力箭二号总指挥杨浩亮表示，目前不回收状态下单次发射成本降至3万元/公斤以下。火箭可实现年产20发的生产能力。力箭二号采购YF-102发动机在商业逻辑上是用成熟度换运力，其研发风险低、交付可预期。但其可扩展的集束式回收设计为未来成本下降预留了路径。对于急需确定性交付的卫星客户（如千帆、GW星座）而言，力箭二号的首飞成功使其成为一个低风险选项。此次首飞还搭载了轻舟初样试飞船，首飞任务直接服务于国家重大战略和重大工程建设。

事件二：

2026年4月3日，天兵科技天龙三号大型可复用液氧煤油火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区首飞，火箭起飞后飞行异常，发射任务失利，该火箭对标SpaceX猎鹰9号，近地轨道设计运力17-22吨，一子级规划垂直回收复用，目前故障原因正在调查。

点评：

天龙三号首飞获取关键技术数据，高收益路径伴随高风险

天龙三号直径3.8米，长度72米，起飞质量590吨，近地轨道（LEO）运力17至22吨，太阳同步轨道（SSO）运力10至17吨。火箭一级配置9台天火十二发动机并联工作，天龙三号预计实现一箭36颗互联网卫星组网发射，支持中国空间站大规模货物运输需求及中高轨卫星发射需求，直接对标美国SpaceX的猎鹰9号运载火箭。

本次首飞在真实环境下对关键技术开展了全面考核，获取了真实飞行环境下的关键数据。参考SpaceX，其Falcon 1，Falcon9，Starship分别失败了3次、6次、6次，失败试验本身也是在积累宝贵的工程数据。相比力箭二号，天龙三号发动机技术自研，高集成度新技术堆叠，挑战较大。火箭配备的天火十二发动机拥有四十余项关键创新技术，包括在国内首次采用冷气多次起动技术、自燃点火技术、燃烧不稳定抑制技术、超大尺寸推力室不锈钢3D打印制造技术、涡轮盘热力组件3D打印技术等。

天龙三号高目标决定其首飞高收益的同时伴随高风险。如果验证成功，证明天龙三号从发动机到整箭都能由企业自主掌控，议价权和迭代速度都会大幅提升。本次故障发生在一子级飞行阶段，说明核心动力系统集成的挑战仍未解决。

对比之下，蓝箭航天是三家中最接近可复用商业闭环的企业。朱雀三号遥一运载火箭，一级采用9台天鹊12A液氧甲烷发动机，设计重复使用次数不低于20次，成熟后航区回收状态下近地轨道运载能力不低于18吨。2025年12月3日，朱雀三号成功入轨，火箭一级在超音速再入气动滑行阶段积累有效飞行数据，验证了冷气反作用控制系统与栅格舵的复合控制策略及制导算法，但在着陆段点火后出现异常，坠毁于回收场坪边缘，回收失败。预计2026年遥二箭将再次开展回收试验。


力箭二号确认商业航天进入中型运力时代

力箭二号

天龙三号

朱雀三号

中科宇航

天兵科技

蓝箭航天

首飞基本信息

首飞时间

2026年3月30日

2026年4月3日

2025年12月3日

首飞结果

成功

失利

基础型部分成功

将新征程01星、新征程02星(轻舟初样试飞船)、天视卫星01星送入预定极地轨道

火箭飞行异常,具体原因正在分析排查

二级入轨成功;一级着陆段点火后异常,回收失败

运载能力

LEO运力

12吨

17~22吨

基础型8~11.8吨;改进型12.5~21.3吨

SSO运力

8吨

10~17吨

--

构型与参数

构型

CBC三芯并联(3CBC),两级

光杆两级串联

光杆两级串联

发动机

一级:YF-102×9(每芯级3台)

一级:天火-12(TH-12)×9

基础型:TQ-12A×9;改进型一级:TQ-12B×9

二级:YF-102V×1

二级:天火-12V(TH-12V)×1

基础型:TQ-15A×1;改进型:TQ-15B×1

燃料

液氧/煤油

液氧/煤油

液氧/甲烷

复用性

首飞一次性使用

首飞一次性使用

首飞尝试回收失败

计划2028年实现集束回收;设计复用次数不少于20次

设计可垂直回收复用;设计复用次数不少于10-20次

设计可垂直回收复用;设计复用次数不少于20次

Source: 中科宇航，天兵科技，蓝箭航天，HTI

国际可复用商业火箭

猎鹰九号Block5

重型猎鹰(Falcon Heavy)

新格伦(New Glenn7x2)

所属主体

SpaceX(美国)

SpaceX(美国)

Blue Origin(美国)

市场地位

全球商业发射市场主导者；2025年完成165次发射，再创年度纪录；Transporter SSO共乘为小卫星市场领导者

现役运力第二重(仅次于SLS)；主打重型GTO与军事任务；已完成11次成功发射，获NSSL认证

Blue Origin重型旗舰，正进行NSSL认证；2025年11月第2次飞行首次成功回收一子级；已签约AmazonKuiper、Eutelsat等客户

LEO运力

22,800kg

63,800kg

LEO运力(复用)

17,500kg

30,000~57,000kg

45,000kg

构型

二级(光杆一子级+二级)

三芯捆绑(1个强化芯级+2个猎鹰九号侧助推器)+二级

二级(一子级GS1+二级GS2)

一级:9×Merlin1D+

三个芯级:27×Merlin1D+

一子级:7×BE-4

发动机

二级:1×Merlin1D Vacuum

二级:1×Merlin1D Vacuum

二级:2×BE-3U Vacuum

合计10台

合计28台

合计9台一子级:液氧甲烷二级:液氧液氢

燃料

液氧煤油

液氧煤油

复用性

一子级、整流罩可复用

两侧助推通常回收；芯级多数任务芯级消耗或坠毁

一子级可回收

Source:SpaceX,Blue Origin,HTI


SpaceX在试飞中收集数据

日期

型号

任务

失败类型

经调查确认的原因

2006/3/24

Falcon1

Flight1/FalconSAT-2

任务失败(全损)

燃料管道泄漏引发火灾,T+41s坠毁。DARPA调查确认:螺母因盐水腐蚀失效(非未拧紧)

2007/3/21

Falcon1

Flight2/DemoSat

任务失败(全损)

燃料晃动(fuel slosh)及滚转控制问题,二级发动机提前关机,飞至约289km后未能入轨

2008/8/2

Falcon1

Flight3/Trailblazer

任务失败(全损)

分离时序错误:Merlin1C关机后残余推力使一级再次撞击二级,两段均坠入太平洋。马斯克2008-08-06确认

2012/10/8

Falcon9v1.0

CRS-1

任务失败(部分)

1号发动机T+79s失压关机,Dragon顺利送达ISS;但因ISS安全门限二级无法二次点火,副载荷OrbcommOG2未达预定轨道全损

2015/6/28

Falcon9v1.1

CRS-7

任务失败(全损)

T+139s:二级液氧箱内固定氦气瓶的钢支撑杆断裂,氦气瓶冲破液氧箱超压爆炸。NASA IRT调查:设计错误,使用工业级(非航天级)铸件,额定10,000磅实以2,000磅失效

2016/9/1

Falcon9v1.2

AMOS-6

地面/发射前失败

加注推进剂时爆炸:二级液氧箱内COPV衬层起皱,固化液氧渗入被点燃。SpaceX2017-01-02官方声明确认,卫星同毁,SLC-40发射台严重损毁

2018/12/5

Falcon9Block5

CRS-16

回收失败(主任务成功)

一级栅格翼液压泵停转,火箭进入滚转,导致着陆偏离。

2024/7/11

Falcon9Block5

Starlink Group9-3

任务失败(全损)

振动疲劳导致压力传感器管路开裂,液氧泄漏,二级无法执行第二次点火。20颗卫星释放至近地点约135km轨道,全部再入大气层。

2025/2/1

Falcon9Block5

Starlink11-4

离轨失败(卫星成功部署)

少量液氧泄漏导致TVC管线冻结,二级失去姿态控制,无法执行离轨点火,软件自动跳过并钝化二级。残骸2月19日无控再入,碎片落至波兰

2023/4/20

Starship IFT-1

首次综合飞行测试

任务失败(全损)

Super Heavy发动机舱推进剂泄漏引发火灾,切断主飞控,载具偏轨,AFSS自动引爆。发射台基础结构因无隔热层严重损毁。FAA2023-09-08关闭调查,确认63项纠正措施

2023/11/18

Starship IFT-2

第二次综合飞行测试

任务失败(全损)

Super Heavy(B9)反推时多发动机机,在墨西哥湾90km处被主动引爆。S25成功入太空,但排气钝化阶段泄漏引发火灾,前后飞控计算机断联,解体

2024/3/14

Starship IFT-3

第三次综合飞行测试

任务失败(全损)

Super Heavy(B10)返回时10台内侧发动机无法重点火,在462m处爆炸。S28成功上升并完成部分测试,但因横滚速率过高未完成发动机再点火,未实现软着水

2025/1/16

Starship IFT-7

第七次综合飞行测试

任务失败(上级段)

S33(Block2)发动机舱"阁楼"区域氧/燃料泄漏引发持续火灾,多台发动机依次关机,载具解体。SpaceX2025-02-24调查结论:飞行中谐振响应远超测试预期,引发推进系统应力泄漏。B14成功被捕获(第2次)

2025/3/6

Starship IFT-8

第八次综合飞行测试

任务失败(上级段)

S34(Block2)在T+8:04四台发动机提前关机,失控解体于巴哈马/佛罗里达上空。FAA2025-06-12调查:Raptor发动机硬件故障致推进剂意外混合点燃,与IFT-7原因不同。B15成功被捕获(第3次)

2025/5/27

Starship IFT-9

第九次综合飞行测试

任务失败(全损)

S35(Block2)上升正常,但惰行阶段主燃料箱增压扩散器(diffuser)故障,推进剂泄漏失去姿态控制,无控再入印度洋上空解体。B14(首次复飞)因大攻角实验使结构承力超出预测,着陆点火时爆炸。为IFT-7/8/9连续第三次上级段失败

Source: SpaceX, HTI


事件三：

2026年3月30日，Rocket Lab收购德国卫星激光通信企业Mynaric的交易获得德国监管部门批准，该收购于2025年启动，彼时Rocket Lab宣布拟以7500万美元现价加7500万美元对赌收购Mynaric。Mynaric为全球卫星激光通信核心器件供应商，对标美国SDA（太空发展局）下一代安全星链主供商。经过为期一年的德国联邦经济和能源部的审查，该交易2026年一季度获批，Rocket Lab预计交易将于4月完成。

点评：

Rocket Lab从运载火箭公司向全栈航天系统提供商持续演进

Rocket Lab通过收购Mynaric补齐星间与星地激光链路这一关键环节，持续深化发射+卫星制造+核心部件的垂直整合，为承接和自建星座与太空安全业务做能力铺垫。Rocket Lab近年来多次收购多家核心部件供应商，意在实现发射、卫星和关键部件的一体化，走卖铲子+下矿双轮驱动路线。Mynaric的激光链路终端是全球低轨星座、空间安全网络的核心基础设施之一，其技术可显著提升星间、星地链路带宽与抗干扰性。激光通信已成为星座运营商的供应链痛点——相关产品长期无法以高产量、可负担的价格供应。Rocket Lab此前通过多次收购，已有将卫星子系统从小批量、长交期转变为大规模可负担供应的成功记录，此次收购Mynaric意在对激光通信终端复制同样的路径。

Mynaric成为Rocket Lab布局欧洲制造与市场的重要支点，交易完成后，Mynaric的总部将继续设在德国慕尼黑，这将建立Rocket Lab在欧洲的第一个据点，并使公司能够扩大其支持德国和更广泛的欧洲太空计划的能力。

Mynaric已是Rocket Lab的分包商，为Rocket Lab价值13亿美元的SDA主合同提供CONDOR Mk3光学通信终端，涵盖Transport Layer-Beta Tranche2和Tracking Layer Tranche3，共生产36颗卫星。Mynaric也是SDA其他合同的供应商，并且Mynaric和Rocket Lab拥有众多共同客户，包括商业星座运营商、卫星主承包商以及国防和民用政府机构。 Rocket Lab计划扩大Mynaric的生产规模并提高其现有制造能力的效率，从而增强客户对其终端按时按预算交付的信心。

事件四：

2026年4月初，亚马逊启动对卫星通信公司Globalstar的收购洽谈，拟通过收购获取其在轨卫星、通信频谱及地面站资源，以推进其低轨卫星互联网项目Amazon Leo、与SpaceX星链形成竞争；此前苹果已入股Globalstar并锁定其大部分网络容量用于手机紧急卫星通信。

点评：

亚马逊拟议收购 Globalstar：频谱卡位与LEO一体化加速的战略逻辑

亚马逊潜在收购 Globalstar，核心逻辑在于快速获取已授权频谱资产、现有在轨与地面基础设施，以压缩 Amazon Leo商业化落地的时间成本，强化对 Starlink的竞争态势。

Globalstar 对于亚马逊有几方面的战略资产价值：

(1) 频谱资产稀缺性构成核心价值。轨道频谱属受监管稀缺资源，不可复制。Globalstar持有的L频段与S频段许可证已在全球数十个市场完成监管认证，并配套现有地面基础设施，短期内难以通过自建方式替代。频谱许可的全球覆盖范围是本次潜在交易的核心溢价来源。

(2) 直接收购基础设施缩短部署周期。Globalstar目前运营24颗第二代低轨卫星，并规划发射下一代星座；同时在全球部署逾20座地面关口站，可支撑即时商业化运营。上述资产有助于亚马逊显著压缩Amazon Leo的部署节奏与资本开支。

(3) 直连手机（Direct-to-Cell）填补关键能力缺口。SpaceX已在该领域形成先发优势，而亚马逊目前在此方向存在明显缺位。Globalstar作为苹果iPhone及Apple Watch紧急卫星通信服务的基础设施提供商，收购后亚马逊可直接切入消费级卫星直连市场。

亚马逊的战略意图为加速构建低轨+云+终端一体化能力。亚马逊围绕低轨卫星的布局自2018年Project Kuiper启动、2019年公开披露，于2020年获FCC批准后进入重资本投入期。若本次收购落地，亚马逊有望将Globalstar的低轨卫星网络与地面基础设施接入Amazon Leo星座，并结合AWS云计算能力，在频谱、网络、云与终端四个环节实现一体化运营，向空间网络+算力服务+数据应用的基础设施化商业模式演进一一其路径与Starlink向基础设施化、服务化延伸的逻辑高度一致。

从行业视角看，本轮并购浪潮的实质是头部玩家凭借资本、技术与流量优势，争夺频谱授权、产业链控制权与未来空间数据业务主导权。网络层正逐步成为估值与盈利预期的核心支撑。

本次交易最大的结构性障碍来自苹果。Globalstar已将约 85%的网络容量预留给苹果，用于支持其紧急卫星通信服务；苹果同时持有 Globalstar 约 20%股权。这意味着亚马逊在完成股权交割之外，还须就容量分配安排与苹果另行谈判，协议重构的复杂性与不确定性不可忽视。此外，需要关注跨境并购可能触发的反垄断审查。

后续关注重点：并购进程与监管审批节奏；苹果容量协议谈判结果；Amazon Leo与Globalstar网络整合的技术路径与时间表；以及直连手机服务的商用落地能力。


事件五：

2026年4月2日，NASA阿尔忒弥斯2号任务由SLS火箭发射升空，搭载4名航天员执行绕月飞行任务，为人类自 1972年阿波罗计划后时隔54年首次载人重返月球附近轨道，任务为绕月飞行、不实施登月与月球轨道驻留。

点评：

大国博弈推动登月任务主线，催化月球商业服务及太空旅游项目

NASA阿尔忒弥斯2号任务定位为验证猎户座飞船生命维持系统及深空能力的技术验证飞行，为后续载人登月任务奠定基础。值得关注的政策背景是，月球门户（Lunar Gateway）计划已于2026年3月被取消，显示NASA在预算压力下正进行资源集中，将投入向核心载人登月能力倾斜，而非分散于轨道基础设施建设。这一调整短期内对部分承包商形成压力，但中长期有利于登月主线的提速推进。

SLS火箭本次执行第二次飞行任务。其双固体助推器与四台RS-25发动机共产生约880万磅推力，成功将重达575万磅的整体系统送入深空轨道。SLS的高成本结构（单次约40亿美元）是市场长期诟病所在，但其作为阿尔忒弥斯计划不可替代的近期主力运载工具地位短期内不会改变。波音（BA）、洛克达因等核心供应商订单能见度维持稳定。

我们更关注本次任务对商业航天的催化效应。成功的载人深空验证将：

1. 加速月球商业服务（通信、运输、资源开采）、太空旅游项目的商业立案进程；

1. 为国防部深空态势感知项目提供背书，带动相关防务承包商。

事件六：

2026年4月7日21时32分，长征八号运载火箭在海南商业航天发射场点火起飞，以"一箭十八星"方式将千帆星座第七批组网卫星送入预定轨道，发射任务圆满成功。执行本次任务的长征八号为捆绑2个助推器的基本构型，700公里太阳同步轨道运载能力不低于5.5吨。本次任务由中国航天科技集团所属中国长城工业集团有限公司作为总承包商提供发射服务，这是长征系列运载火箭第636次发射。

点评：

发射节奏加快，千帆星座组网加速推进。千帆星座分三期部署：一期部署648颗卫星，提供区域网络覆盖；二期部署1296颗卫星，提供全球网络覆盖；三期规划超过1.5万颗卫星，提供多元业务融合服务。今年，长八系列火箭将开启高密度发射模式，持续助推我国低轨卫星互联网星座建设和商业航天高质量发展。本次任务大幅缩短了测发流程，提升了测发效率，为后续高密度发射任务的开展提供了有力支撑。自2024年8月首批组网发射以来，千帆已完成七次"一箭十八星"。

本次由长八在海南商业发射场执行，验证商业发射场常态化高频次运营能力。一号工位采用"新三垂测发模式"，将箭体分段垂直转运，总装在发射区完成一一这一模式大幅降低了发射成本和厂房占用时间，未来有望实现每周一次发射的高密度任务需求。对比SpaceX猎鹰9高密度发射模式，中国商业航天正沿相似路径快速追赶。

600颗是商业化临界点，下游订单释放可期。千帆星座由上海垣信卫星科技有限公司负责建设运营，服务于"一带一路"沿线及中资出海企业的高速、低延时卫星宽带需求。垣信董事长张琦于2026年3月公开表示，星座预计年内实现全球初步覆盖。观察者网援引知情人士测算，在轨规模达600颗时，垣信将具备争取50亿元级商业订单的能力。结合泰国国家电信、巴西TELEBRAS、空客集团等已签署合作协议，以及2025年1月邮轮宽带首测成功，商业化进程有望加速。

事件七：

北京时间2026年4月9日3时38分，我国在太原卫星发射中心使用长征六号改运载火箭，成功将卫星互联网低轨21组卫星发射升空，卫星顺利进入预定轨道，发射任务圆满成功。

点评：

长征六号甲运载火箭由上海航天技术研究院承担总体研制工作，作为中国首型固液捆绑构型运载火箭，其近地轨道（LEO）运载能力不低于8吨，太阳同步轨道（SSO）运载能力不低于4吨。火箭全长约50米，起飞质量约530吨，芯级动力系统配置两台YF-100液氧/煤油发动机，并在箭体周侧对称捆绑四台固体助推器。从工程技术视角审视，CZ- 6A的核心竞争力体现在以下两个维度：

1. 高效的测发响应能力。依托太原卫星发射中心智慧化发射工位的系统支撑，长征六号甲具备14天测发周期的快速响应能力，可有效匹配中低轨道卫星组网阶段的高密度发射节奏。就这一指标而言，其在全球同量级运载火箭中目前处于第一梯队。


1. 高度集成的智能化发射流程。长征六号甲在发射操作层面实现了三项国内首创：率先应用推进剂自动对接加注技术；率先引入零秒脱落连接器技术；并在加注流程启动后，首次实现发射场前端区域的全面无人值守状态。上述能力的综合应用，为支撑未来高频次持续发射奠定了重要的工程基础。

本次任务紧随4月7日长征八号执行千帆星座第七批组网发射之后，48小时内中国低轨星座实现第二次连续入轨。自2022年3月完成首飞至今，CZ-6A已积累起可靠的在轨飞行数据，工程成熟度已具备支撑批量化交付的能力基础。凭借14天的测发周期优势，该型火箭在同吨位运载平台中具备显著的任务响应速度，是低轨星座规模组网阶段不可或缺的核心承运平台之一。


APPENDIX 1

Summary

SpaceX has exerted pressure on the commercial launch market, forcing commercial aerospace players on both the Chinese and U.S. sides to accelerate their evolution. China has ramped up rocket payload capacity and launch frequency, while major U.S. aerospace players are accelerating their transformation into full-stack system providers through capital consolidation.

I. China's Private Rocket Sector: Breakthrough in Medium-Lift Threshold, Accelerated Route Differentiation

The successful maiden flight of Gravity-2 has set a new record for single orbital payload capacity among China's private rockets with its CBC clustered configuration. In its non-reusable configuration, the launch cost of Gravity-2 has been reduced to 30,000 RMB per kilogram. In this launch, CAS Space adopted a steady and progressive approach, striking a balance between commercial certainty and R&D risks. By procuring the YF-102 engine, which has successfully completed multiple missions, the company prioritized engineering maturity over aggressive technological stacking. For satellite operators with clear on-orbit timelines, predictable delivery windows themselves constitute a certainty premium, which is expected to be quantitatively reflected in subsequent commercial contract negotiations.

In contrast, Tianbing Technology has chosen a high-risk, high-reward path. Its rocket boasts a low Earth orbit (LEO) payload capacity of 17 to 22 tonnes, with its first stage equipped with nine domestically developed Tianhuo-12 engines operating in parallel, directly competing with SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch vehicle. The Tianhuo-12 engine integrates more than 40 key technological innovations in a single design, placing already high engineering validation pressure on its maiden flight; notably, the Falcon 9 required six failed attempts to establish its reliability baseline.

A key company to watch is LandSpace with its Zhuque-3 rocket. Among China's current private rocket players, Zhuque-3 is technologically advanced, having successfully reached orbit with a domestically developed engine and conducted recovery tests near the recovery zone edge. A second recovery test is planned for 2026. If the recovery verification succeeds, LandSpace will reshape its cost structure and enhance its competitiveness.

II. Increased High-Frequency Launches for LEO Constellations

The Long March 8 and Long March 6A completed constellation deployment launches within 48 hours, demonstrating that China's commercial aerospace launch infrastructure is capable of stable, high-frequency delivery. The Long March 8's "new three-vertical launch and test mode" moves the assembly process forward to the launch zone, while the Long March 6A's 14-day launch and test cycle ranks among the global first tier for its class, supporting the feasibility of weekly launch densities in the future.

Since the first batch of satellites entered orbit in August 2024, the Qianfan Constellation has completed seven launches featuring "one rocket carrying 18 satellites". The chairman of Yuanxin Satellite has publicly confirmed the goal of achieving initial global coverage within the year. The market projects that once the on-orbit scale reaches 600 satellites, it will unlock commercial orders worth approximately 5 billion RMB.

III. Major U.S. Players: Accelerated Vertical Integration, Valuation Restructuring Driven by Expanded Core Capability Boundaries

Starlink has established a significant first-mover operational moat in the low Earth orbit broadband service market. As a result, the strategic focus of leading U.S. commercial aerospace players has rapidly shifted from competition in launch capacity to building full-stack system integration capabilities.

Rocket Lab's acquisition of Mynaric has received regulatory approval, further advancing the company's vertical integration. In recent years, Rocket Lab has acquired multiple core component suppliers, aiming to deepen integration across launch services, satellites, and critical components, pursuing a dual-driven strategy of "selling shovels and mining". Through this acquisition, Rocket Lab has completed its full industrial chain closed loop, laying a solid foundation for undertaking large-scale commercial constellation projects and developing its own medium- to long-term proprietary constellations. Rocket Lab's valuation benchmark should shift from a pure launch service provider to an aerospace system integrator.

Amazon's proposed acquisition of Globalstar follows a strategically analogous logic, yet with greater emphasis on asset scarcity. Amazon's Project Kuiper still lags significantly behind Starlink in on-orbit scale and service coverage depth. However, Globalstar holds L/S band licenses covering dozens of regulatory jurisdictions worldwide, representing scarce regulatory assets that cannot be quickly replicated through new applications. The acquisition route bypasses the lengthy spectrum application process and leverages Globalstar's existing Direct-to-Cell network infrastructure to fill the capability gap in direct consumer terminal connectivity.

Upon completion of the transaction, Amazon will form a four-layer integrated capability architecture encompassing spectrum assets, satellite networks, AWS cloud infrastructure, and consumer terminals, with a strategic evolution path highly symmetrical to Starlink's expansion into integrated communications infrastructure. The core execution risk centers on Apple: approximately 85% of network capacity is constrained by existing agreements, and renegotiations for capacity restructuring represent a critical path dependency for the transaction, requiring ongoing monitoring.

Against the backdrop of shifting risk-on sentiment in the U.S. market under the TACO macro framework, commercial aerospace presents two structural opportunity themes in the current market cycle, each with distinct risk-return profiles.

First, on the Chinese side, optimism surrounds high-value core segments of the domestic satellite and rocket supply chains. As China's low Earth orbit satellites enter a high-density networking phase alongside steady improvements in launch capacity, demand will rise for key satellite and rocket components including phased array antennas, laser communication terminals, on-board processing chips, and star trackers. These segments feature high technological barriers and clear logic for domestic independent controllability.

Second, opportunities exist for valuation restructuring among U.S. full-stack integration platforms that have achieved commercial closed- loop operations. By acquiring supplier Mynaric, Rocket Lab has reduced costs and further solidified its role as a system integrator, positioning itself for potential valuation restructuring.

Risks: The normalisation of commercial operations may not proceed as anticipated; progress on acquisitions may not meet expectations.


附录 APPENDIX

重要信息披露

本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司（HTIRL），Haitong Securities India Private Limited（HSIPL），Haitong International Japan K.K.（HTIJKK）和海通国际证券有限公司（HTISCL）的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团（HTISG）各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International Japan K.K. ("HTIJKK"), Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL"), and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies ("HTISG"), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.

HTIRL 分析师认证 Analyst Certification:

我，陈子仪，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I, Ziyi Chen, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 30 calendar days after the research report is published.

我，李加惠，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I, Li Jiahui, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 30 calendar days after the research report is published.

利益冲突披露 Conflict of Interest Disclosures

海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至 ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com）

HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com if timely and comprehensive information is needed).

No Disclosure

评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：

海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。

分析师股票评级

优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 10%以上，基准定义如下

中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。

弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下

各地股票基准指数：日本-TOPIX，韩国-KOSPI，台湾-TAIEX，印度-Nifty100，美国-SP500;其他所有中国概念股-MSCI China.

Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020):

Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations.

Analyst Stock Ratings

Outperform: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Neutral: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.

Underperform: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Benchmarks for each stock's listed region are as follows: Japan-TOPIX, Korea-KOSPI, Taiwan-TAIEX, India-Nifty100, US-SP500; for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.


截至2025年12月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布 截至2025年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布

截至2025年12月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布

截至2025年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布

优于大市

中性(持有)

弱于大市

优于大市

中性(持有)

弱于大市

海通国际股票研究覆盖率

93.9%

6.0%

0.1%

92.3%

7.5%

0.2%

投资银行客户*

3.0%

4.0%

0.0%

3.3%

3.9%

0.0%

*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。

上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。

只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。

此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）：

买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下

中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。

卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下

各地股票基准指数：日本-TOPIX，韩国-KOSPI，台湾-TAIEX，印度-Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股-MSCI China.

Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,

Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,

as of December 31,2025

as of September 30,2025

Outperform

Neutral(hold)

Underperform

Outperform

Neutral(hold)

Underperform

HTI Equity Research Coverage

93.9%

6.0%

0.1%

92.3%

7.5%

0.2%

IB clients*

3.0%

4.0%

0.0%

3.3%

3.9%

0.0%

*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.

BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform.

For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020):

BUY: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

NEUTRAL: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.

SELL: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

Benchmarks for each stock's listed region are as follows: Japan-TOPIX, Korea-KOSPI, Taiwan-TAIEX, India-Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks-MSCI China.

海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。

Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.

海通国际A股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。国泰海通证券（601211.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与国泰海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与国泰海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。

Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares: Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES (601211 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating system employed by GTHS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and GTHS ratings for the same A-share stocks.

海通国际优质100A股（Q100）指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由国泰海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对国泰海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。

Haitong International Quality 100 A-share (Q100) Index: HTI's Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at GTHS in Shanghai. These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the GTHS A-share team's bottom-up research. The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.

盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据之前，请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明：

第一条义利（FIN-ESG）数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司（以下简称“本公司”）基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成，本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司的评估结果仅供参考，并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议，也不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。本公司不对任何个人或机构投资者因使用本数据表述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接损失负责。

第二条盟浪并不因收到此评估数据而将收件人视为客户，收件人使用此数据时应根据自身实际情况作出自我独立判断。本数据所载内容反映的是盟浪在最初发布本数据日期当日的判断，盟浪有权在不发出通知的情况下更新、修订与发出其他与本数据所载内容不一致或有不同结论的数据。除非另行说明，本数据（如财务业绩数据等）仅代表过往表现，过往的业绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。

第三条

改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图标及说明等，否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造


成损失的，由用户承担相应的赔偿责任，盟浪不承担责任。

第四条 如本免责声明未约定，而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容（如《盟浪网站用户注册协议》《盟浪网用户服务（含认证）协议》《盟浪网隐私政策》等）有约定的，则按其他协议的约定执行；若本免责声明与其他协议约定存在冲突或不一致的，则以本免责声明约定为准。

SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer: Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these terms before using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service.

1. FIN-ESG Data is produced by SusallWave Digital Technology Co., Ltd. (In short, SusallWave)'s assessment based on legal publicly accessible information. SusallWave shall not be responsible for any accuracy and completeness of the information. The assessment result is for reference only. It is not for any investment advice for any individual or institution and not for basis of purchasing, selling or holding any relative financial products. We will not be liable for any direct or indirect loss of any individual or institution as a result of using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data.

1. SusallWave do not consider recipients as customers for receiving these data. When using the data, recipients shall make your own independent judgment according to your practical individual status. The contents of the data reflect the judgment of us only on the release day. We have right to update and amend the data and release other data that contains inconsistent contents or different conclusions without notification. Unless expressly stated, the data (e.g., financial performance data) represents past performance only and the past performance cannot be viewed as the prediction of future return.

1. The copyright of this data belongs to SusallWave, and we reserve all rights in accordance with the law. Without the prior written permission of our company, none of individual or institution can use these data for any profitable purpose. Besides, none of individual or institution can take actions such as amendment, replication, translation, compilation, re-editing, adaption, deletion, abbreviation, excerpts, issuance, rent, exhibition, performance, projection, broadcast, information network transmission, shooting, adding icons and instructions. If any loss of SusallWave or any third-party is caused by those actions, users shall bear the corresponding compensation liability. SusallWave shall not be responsible for any loss.

1. If any term is not contained in this disclaimer but written in other agreements on our website (e.g. User Registration Protocol of SusallWave Website, User Service (including authentication) Agreement of SusallWave Website, Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website), it should be executed according to other agreements. If there is any difference between this disclaim and other agreements, this disclaimer shall be applied.

重要免责声明：

非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International (Japan) K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。

印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受 Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的 Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖 BSE Limited（“BSE”）和 National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为「印度交易所」）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。

所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。

本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。

除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。 HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。

请访问海通国际网站www.equities.htisec.com，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。

非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

For research reports on non-Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited ("HTISGL") and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities) for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) of Hong Kong, with the assistance of Haitong International (Japan) K.K. ("HTIJKK"), a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.

For research reports on Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") registered Stock Broker, Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that, inter alia, produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited ("BSE") and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited ("NSE") (collectively referred to as "Indian Exchanges"). HSIPL was acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies ("HTISG") on 22 December 2016.

All the research reports are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL") and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.


The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by HTIRL, HTISCL, HSIPL, HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report may be received, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice. This research report is for information purpose only. Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this research report is not, and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as, an offer to buy or sell securities. The securities referred to in this research report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions. If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investor's home currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Certain transactions, including those involving derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this research report are not tailor-made for you. The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances, such as your financial situation and risk appetite. You must, therefore, analyze and should, where applicable, consult your own legal, tax, accounting, financial and other professional advisers to evaluate whether the recommendations suits you before investment. Neither HTISG nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.

HTISG and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research report. Sales, traders, and other professionals of HTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research report. HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions, ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this research report.

Please refer to HTI's website www.equities.htisec.com for further information on HTI's organizational and administrative arrangements set up for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.

Non U.S. Analyst Disclosure: The HTI analyst(s) listed on the cover of this Research is (are) not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are not subject to U.S. FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research; public appearances; and trading securities by a research analyst.

分发和地区通知：

除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。

香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司（“HTISCL”）负责分发该研究报告，HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动（从事证券交易）的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成《证券及期货条例》（香港法例第571章）（以下简称“SFO”）所界定的要约邀请，证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。

美国投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由HTIRL，HSIPL或HTIJKK编写。HTIRL，HSIPL，HTIJKK以及任何非HTISG美国联营公司，均未在美国注册，因此不受美国关于研究报告编制和研究分析人员独立性规定的约束。本研究报告提供给依照1934年“美国证券交易法”第15a-6条规定的豁免注册的「美国主要机构投资者」（“Major U.S. Institutional Investor”）和「机构投资者」（“U.S. Institutional Investors”）。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时，Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc.（“HTI USA”）将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国投资者，希望根据本研究报告提供的信息进行任何证券或相关金融工具买卖的交易，只能通过HTI USA。HTI USA位于130 West 42nd Street，FL18，New York，NY10036 USA，电话+1212-351-6052。HTI USA是在美国于U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission（“SEC”）注册的经纪商，也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority，Inc.（“FINRA”）的成员。HTIUSA不负责编写本研究报告，也不负责其中包含的分析。在任何情况下，收到本研究报告的任何美国投资者，不得直接与分析师直接联系，也不得通过HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIJKK直接进行买卖证券或相关金融工具的交易。本研究报告中出现的HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIJKK分析师没有注册或具备FINRA的研究分析师资格，因此可能不受FINRA第2241条规定的与目标公司的交流，公开露面和分析师账户持有的交易证券等限制。投资本研究报告中讨论的任何非美国证券或相关金融工具（包括ADR）可能存在一定风险。非美国发行的证券可能没有注册，或不受美国法规的约束。有关非美国证券或相关金融工具的信息可能有限制。外国公司可能不受审计和汇报的标准以及与美国境内生效相符的监管要求。本研究报告中以美元以外的其他货币计价的任何证券或相关金融工具的投资或收益的价值受汇率波动的影响，可能对该等证券或相关金融工具的价值或收入产生正面或负面影响。美国收件人的所有问询请联系：

Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc.

130 West 42nd Street, FL 18

New York, NY 10036

联系人电话：+1212-351-6052

DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONAL NOTICES

Except as otherwise indicated below, any Recipient wishing to discuss this research report or effect any transaction in any security discussed in HTI's research should contact the Haitong International salesperson in their own country or region.

Notice to Hong Kong investors: The research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL"), which is a licensed corporation to carry on Type 1 regulated activity (dealing in securities) in Hong Kong. This research report does not constitute a solicitation or an offer of securities or an invitation to the public within the meaning of the SFO. This research report is only to be circulated to "Professional Investors" as defined in the SFO. This research report has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission. You should not make investment decisions solely on the basis of the information contained in this research report. Recipients of this research report are to contact HTISCL salespersons in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the research report.

Notice to U.S. investors: As described above, this research report was prepared by HTIRL, HSIPL or HTIJKK. Neither HTIRL, HSIPL, HTIJKK, nor any of the non U.S. HTISG affiliates is registered in the United States and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report is provided for distribution to "major U.S. institutional investors" and "U.S. institutional investors" in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. When distributing research reports to "U.S. institutional investors," HTI USA will accept the responsibilities for the content of the reports. Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments based on the information provided in this research report should do so only through Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc. ("HTI USA"), located at 130 West 42nd Street, FL 18, New York, NY 10036 USA; telephone +1 212-351-6052. HTI USA is a broker-dealer registered in the U.S. with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. ("FINRA"). HTI USA is not responsible for the preparation of this research report nor for the analysis contained therein. Under no circumstances should any U.S. recipient of this research report contact the analyst directly or effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial


instruments directly through HSIPL, HTIRL or HTIJKK analyst(s) whose name appears in this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and, therefore, may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments (including ADRs) discussed in this research report may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to U.S. regulations. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Foreign companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect within the U.S. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related financial instruments. All inquiries by U.S. recipients should be directed to:

Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc.

130 West 42nd Street, FL 18

New York, NY 10036

Attn: Sales Desk at +1 212-351-6052

中华人民共和国的通知事项：在中华人民共和国（下称“中国”，就本报告目的而言，不包括香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾）只有根据适用的中国法律法规而收到该材料的人员方可使用该材料。并且根据相关法律法规，该材料中的信息并不构成“在中国从事生产、经营活动”。本文件在中国并不构成相关证券的公共发售或认购。无论根据法律规定或其他任何规定，在取得中国政府所有的批准或许可之前，任何法人或自然人均不得直接或间接地购买本材料中的任何证券或任何实益权益。接收本文件的人员须遵守上述限制性规定。

加拿大投资者的通知事项：在任何情况下该等材料均不得被解释为在任何加拿大的司法管辖区内出售证券的要约或认购证券的要约邀请。本材料中所述证券在加拿大的任何要约或出售行为均只能在豁免向有关加拿大证券监管机构提交招股说明书的前提下由Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc.（“HTI USA”）予以实施，该公司是一家根据National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations（“NI 31-103”）的规定得到「国际交易商豁免」（“International Dealer Exemption”）的交易商，位于艾伯塔省、不列颠哥伦比亚省、安大略省和魁北克省。在加拿大，该等材料在任何情况下均不得被解释为任何证券的招股说明书、发行备忘录、广告或公开发行。加拿大的任何证券委员会或类似的监管机构均未审查或以任何方式批准该等材料、其中所载的信息或所述证券的优点，任何与此相反的声明即属违法。在收到该等材料时，每个加拿大的收件人均将被视为属于 National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions 第1.1节或者 Securities Act (Ontario)第73.3(1)节所规定的「认可投资者」（“Accredited Investor”），或者在适用情况下 National Instrument 31-103第1.1节所规定的「许可投资者」（“Permitted Investor”）。

新加坡投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd（“HTISSPL”）于新加坡提供。HTISSPL是符合《财务顾问法》2001（“FAA”）定义的豁免财务顾问，可（a）提供关于证券，集体投资计划的部分，交易所衍生品合约和场外衍生品合约的建议（b）发行或公布有关证券、交易所衍生品合约和场外衍生品合约的研究分析或研究报告。本研究报告仅提供给符合《证券及期货法》2001第4A条项下规定的机构投资者。对于因本研究报告而产生的或与之相关的任何问题，本研究报告的收件人应通过以下信息与 HTISSPL联系：

Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd

10 Collyer Quay, #19-01 - #19-05 Ocean Financial Centre, Singapore 049315

电话：(65)67130473

日本投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由海通国际证券有限公司所发布，旨在分发给从事投资管理的金融服务提供商或注册金融机构（根据日本金融机构和交易法（“FIEL”））第61 （1）条，第17-11（1）条的执行及相关条款）。

英国及欧盟投资者的通知事项：本报告由从事投资顾问的Haitong International Securities Company Limited所发布，本报告只面向有投资相关经验的专业客户发布。任何投资或与本报告相关的投资行为只面对此类专业客户。没有投资经验或相关投资经验的客户不得依赖本报告。Haitong International Securities Company Limited的分支机构的净长期或短期金融权益可能超过本研究报告中提及的实体已发行股本总额的 0.5%。特别提醒有些英文报告有可能此前已经通过中文或其它语言完成发布。

澳大利亚投资者的通知事项：Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Haitong International Securities Company Limited 和 Haitong International Securities (UK) Limited 分别根据澳大利亚证券和投资委员会（以下简称“ASIC”）公司（废除及过度性）文书第2016/396号规章在澳大利亚分发本项研究，该等规章免除了根据2001年《公司法》在澳大利亚为批发客户提供金融服务时海通国际需持有澳大利亚金融服务许可的要求。ASIC的规章副本可在以下网站获取：www.legislation.gov.au。海通国际提供的金融服务受外国法律法规规定的管制，该等法律与在澳大利亚所适用的法律存在差异。

印度投资者的通知事项：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受 Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的 Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发布，包括制作及发布涵盖 BSE Limited（“BSE”）和 National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）（统称为「印度交易所」）研究报告。

（条款链接：https://www.htisec.com/sites/all/themes/hitong/files/india/Terms%20and%20Conditions%20for%20Research%20Analyst.pdf）

研究机构名称：Haitong Securities India Private Limited

SEBI 研究分析师注册号：INH000002590

地址：1203A，Floor 12A，Tower 2A，One World Center

841 Senapati Bapat Marg, Elphinstone Road, Mumbai 400 013, India

CIN U74140MH2011FTC224070

电话：+912243156800传真：+912224216327

合规和申诉办公室联系人： Prasanna Chandwaskar；电话：+912243156803；电子邮箱：prasanna.chandwaskar@htisec.com

“请注意，SEBI授予的注册和NISM的认证并不保证中介的表现或为投资者提供任何回报保证”。

版权所有：海通国际证券集团有限公司2019年。保留所有权利。


People's Republic of China (PRC): In the PRC, the research report is directed for the sole use of those who receive the research report in accordance with the applicable PRC laws and regulations. Further, the information on the research report does not constitute "production and business activities in the PRC" under relevant PRC laws. This research report does not constitute a public offer of the security, whether by sale or subscription, in the PRC. Further, no legal or natural persons of the PRC may directly or indirectly purchase any of the security or any beneficial interest therein without obtaining all prior PRC government approvals or licenses that are required, whether statutorily or otherwise. Persons who come into possession of this research are required to observe these restrictions.

Notice to Canadian Investors: Under no circumstances is this research report to be construed as an offer to sell securities or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc., a dealer relying on the "international dealer exemption" under National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations ("NI 31-103") in Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. This research report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a prospectus, an offering memorandum, an advertisement or a public offering of any securities in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon this research report, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Upon receipt of this research report, each Canadian recipient will be deemed to have represented that the investor is an "accredited investor" as such term is defined in section 1.1 of National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions or, in Ontario, in section 73.3(1) of the Securities Act (Ontario), as applicable, and a "permitted client" as such term is defined in section 1.1 of NI 31-103, respectively.

Notice to Singapore investors: This research report is provided in Singapore by or through Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("HTISSPL"). HTISSPL is an Exempt Financial Adviser under the Financial Advisers Act 2001 ("FAA") to (a) advise on securities, units in a collective investment scheme, exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts and (b) issue or promulgate research analyses or research reports on securities, exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the-counter derivatives contracts. This research report is only provided to institutional investors, within the meaning of Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act 2001. Recipients of this research report are to contact HTISSPL via the details below in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the research report:

Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.

10 Collyer Quay, #19-01 - #19-05 Ocean Financial Centre, Singapore 049315

Telephone: (65) 6713 0473

Notice to Japanese investors: This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited and intended to be distributed to Financial Services Providers or Registered Financial Institutions engaged in investment management (as defined in the Japan Financial Instruments and Exchange Act ("FIEL") Art. 61(1), Order for Enforcement of FIEL Art. 17-11(1), and related articles).

Notice to UK and European Union investors: This research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited. This research is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment or investment activity to which this research relates is available only to such persons or will be engaged in only with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this research. Haitong International Securities Company Limited's affiliates may have a net long or short financial interest in excess of 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the entities mentioned in this research report. Please be aware that any report in English may have been published previously in Chinese or another language.

Notice to Australian investors: The research report is distributed in Australia by Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Haitong International Securities Company Limited, and Haitong International Securities (UK) Limited in reliance on ASIC Corporations (Repeal and Transitional) Instrument 2016/396, which exempts those HTISG entities from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. A copy of the ASIC Class Orders may be obtained at the following website, www.legislation.gov.au. Financial services provided by Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Haitong International Securities Company Limited, and Haitong International Securities (UK) Limited are regulated under foreign laws and regulatory requirements, which are different from the laws applying in Australia.

Notice to Indian investors: The research report is distributed by Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") registered Stock Broker, Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that, inter alia, produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited ("BSE") and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited ("NSE") (collectively referred to as "Indian Exchanges").

(Link to the Terms and Conditions document: https://www.htisec.com/sites/all/themes/hitong/files/india/Terms%20and%20Conditions%20for%20Research%20Analyst.pdf)

Name of the entity: Haitong Securities India Private Limited

SEBI Research Analyst Registration Number: INH000002590

Address:1203A,Floor 12A,Tower 2A,One World Center

841 Senapati Bapat Marg, Elphinstone Road, Mumbai 400 013, India

CIN U74140MH2011FTC224070

Ph: +912243156800

Details of the Compliance Officer and Grievance Officer : Prasanna Chandwaskar : Ph: +91 22 43156803; Email id: prasanna.chandwaskar@htisec.com

"Please note that Registration granted by SEBI and Certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors".

This research report is intended for the recipients only and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the written consent of an authorized signatory of HTISG.

Copyright: Haitong International Securities Group Limited 2019. All rights reserved.

http://equities.htisec.com/x/legal.html