招银国际_3Q earnings: Strong orders, supply constrained_20261102.pdf

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摘要

1招银国际发布北方华创3Q26业绩点评,营收113亿元(同比+1.3%),净利20亿元(同比+5.2%),增速放缓系供应链物料短缺致交付受限而非需求疲软。
2订单持续增长,库存环比增11.1%支撑未来交付。
3因新产品验证成本及大客户折扣,毛利率同比降2ppts至38.3%。
4下调FY26/27E营收预测4.1%/2.3%,维持“买入”评级,目标价由814元下调至750元(对应50x 2027E P/E),较现价有56.7%上行空间。

文本

2 Nov 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update

Naura Technology (002371 CH)

3Q earnings: Strong orders, supply constrained

NAURA reported 3Q26 revenue of RMB11.3bn (+1.3% YoY/14.9% QoQ) and net profit of RMB2.0bn (+5.2% YoY/16.5% QoQ). The YoY deceleration in revenue (2Q26 growth: +24% YoY) reflected material shortages in select product categories as mgmt. noted that orders continued to grow and shipments increased significantly, suggesting that delivery constraints, rather than demand weakness, were the main bottleneck. GPM fell 2.0ppts YoY and 1.0ppt QoQ to 38.3% in 3Q26, reflecting higher component iteration and upgrade costs during new-product validation and discounts for certain high-volume customers. Maintain BUY. As China’s leading platform-based semi manufacturing equipment supplier, NAURA remains a key beneficiary of the structural localization of the SPE sector. We trim our TP to RMB750 based on 50x 2027E P/E (52x prev.), slightly above its one-year historical forward average of 48x.

 Order momentum remains firm, but material availability is constraining delivery. AI-related semi demand, domestic capacity expansion and equipment localization continued to support market-share gains across etching, thin-film deposition, thermal processing, wet cleaning, ion implantation, track and bonding equipment in 9M26. Mgmt. noted continued order growth and a significant increase in shipments, although shortages of certain materials limited revenue conversion. Inventory rose 11.1% QoQ to RMB33.9bn by 3Q26, while contract liabilities remained broadly stable at RMB5.3bn. The inventory build supports future deliveries but highlights the importance of supply-chain execution and customer acceptance. We lower our FY26E/27E revenue forecasts by 4.1%/2.3%.

 Higher R&D investment and GPM pressure continued to constrain operating leverage. In 9M26, R&D expenses increased 17.2% YoY to RMB3.85bn, while selling expenses rose 41.4% to RMB1.21bn as NAURA expanded its market-development and customer-service resources. Meanwhile, 9M26 GPM declined 2.0ppts YoY to 39.4%, mainly due to higher component iteration and upgrade costs during new-product validation and commercial discounts for selected high-volume customers. Accordingly, we reduce our FY26E/27E GPM assumptions by 0.1ppt/0.4ppt.

 Revenue visibility remains solid, with execution and margin recovery now the key variables. NAURA’s broad product portfolio, growing order base and increasing process coverage should support its medium-term outlook. Near-term performance will however depend on improved material availability, faster product validation and customer acceptance. Key risks include prolonged supply-chain constraints, slower customer acceptance, intensifying price competition, etc.

Earnings Summary

(YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (RMB mn) 30,075 39,353 48,621 62,766 79,535

YoY growth (%) 36.2 30.9 23.6 29.1 26.7 Gross margin (%) 42.9 40.1 39.7 41.3 42.6 Net profit (RMB mn) 5,621.8 5,522.0 7,160.5 10,887.8 15,417.1

YoY growth (%) 44.2 (1.8) 29.7 52.1 41.6 EPS (Reported) (RMB) 7.83 7.64 9.87 15.00 21.24 P/E (x) 61.1 62.6 48.5 31.9 22.5 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates

Naura Technology (002371 CH)

  • 3Q earnings: Strong orders, supply constrained

Target Price RMB750.00

(Previous TP RMB814.00)

Up/Downside 56.7% Current Price RMB478.74

China Semiconductors Zhimin ZHOU

(852) 3850 5268 zhouzhimin@cmbi.com.hk

Kevin ZHANG

(852) 3761 8727 kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk

Aaron GUO

(852) 3916 3715 aaronguo@cmbi.com.hk

Stock Data

Mkt Cap (RMB mn) 347,421.6 Avg 3 mths t/o (RMB mn) 4,983.6 52w High/Low (RMB) 935.36/386.86 Total Issued Shares (mn) 725.7

Source: FactSet

Shareholding Structure

Beijing Sevenstar Huadian Technology Gro

33.2% Beijing Electronics Holding 7.3%

Source: Bloomberg

Share Performance

Absolute Relative 1-mth -22.3% -9.2% 3-mth -28.3% -17.4% 6-mth -10.8% 20.3%

Source: FactSet

12-mth Price Performance

Source: FactSet

PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk

1

Figure 1: Earnings revision New Old Diff (%)

RMBmn FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 48,621 62,766 79,535 50,677 64,217 80,124 -4.1% -2.3% -0.7% Gross profit 19,289 25,916 33,891 20,155 26,751 34,573 -4.4% -3.2% -1.9% Net profit 7,161 10,888 15,417 7,500 11,354 15,926 -4.5% -4.1% -3.2% EPS (RMB) 9.87 15.00 21.24 10.34 15.65 21.95 -4.6% -4.1% -3.2% Gross margin 39.7% 41.3% 42.6% 39.8% 41.7% 43.1% -0.1 ppt -0.4 ppt -0.5 ppt Net margin 14.7% 17.3% 19.4% 14.8% 17.7% 19.9% -0.1 ppt -0.3 ppt -0.5 ppt

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 2: CMBIGM estimates vs. BBG consensus CMBI estimates Consensus Diff (%)

RMBmn FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 48,621 62,766 79,535 49,638 66,078 86,764 -2.0% -5.0% -8.3% Gross profit 19,289 25,916 33,891 19,905 26,930 36,351 -3.1% -3.8% -6.8% Net profit 7,161 10,888 15,417 7,288 11,053 15,314 -1.7% -1.5% 0.7% EPS (RMB) 9.87 15.00 21.24 10.07 15.19 20.98 -2.0% -1.2% 1.2% Gross margin 39.7% 41.3% 42.6% 40.1% 40.8% 41.9% -0.4 ppt 0.5 ppt 0.7 ppt Net margin 14.7% 17.3% 19.4% 14.7% 16.7% 17.7% 0 ppt 0.6 ppt 1.7 ppt

Source: Bloomberg consensus, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 3: P/E chart

(RMB)

1,000

800

600

400

200

09/25

08/26

10/26

08/25

10/25

11/25

12/25

01/26

02/26

03/26

04/26

05/26

06/26

07/26

09/26

Closing Px 34.1x 41.1x

48.2x 55.2x 62.2x

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 4: P/E band

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

01-26

04-26

05-26

08-25

09-25

10-25

11-25

12-25

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06-26

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08-26

09-26

10-26

1-yr Forward P/E Mean

Mean+1SD Mean-1SD

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Financial Summary

INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 22,079 30,075 39,353 48,621 62,766 79,535 Cost of goods sold (13,005) (17,162) (23,571) (29,332) (36,851) (45,644) Gross profit 9,075 12,913 15,782 19,289 25,916 33,891 Operating expenses (4,627) (6,366) (9,980) (11,592) (14,189) (17,286) Selling expense (167) (179) (237) (268) (315) (360) SG&A expense (2,836) (3,265) (5,069) (5,543) (6,528) (7,635) R&D expense (2,475) (3,699) (5,435) (6,710) (8,662) (10,976) Others 852 777 762 929 1,316 1,685 Operating profit 4,448 6,546 5,802 7,697 11,727 16,605

Other income 22 22 51 0 0 0 Other expense (4) (35) (8) 0 0 0

Pre-tax profit 4,466 6,533 5,845 7,697 11,727 16,605 Income tax (433) (819) (436) (770) (1,173) (1,661) Others 0 0 0 0 0 0

After tax profit 4,033 5,714 5,409 6,928 10,554 14,945 Minority interest 134 92 (113) (233) (334) (472) Net profit 3,899 5,622 5,522 7,161 10,888 15,417

BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 38,226 46,669 59,321 65,615 80,302 98,896 Cash & equivalents 12,451 12,396 17,337 17,839 19,347 27,435 Account receivables 3,767 6,236 8,217 10,432 13,643 19,043 Inventories 16,992 23,635 28,627 32,448 40,244 44,791 Prepayment 1,480 909 863 959 1,148 1,388 Other current assets 3,535 3,494 4,277 3,938 5,921 6,239 Non-current assets 15,399 19,696 30,480 34,150 39,144 45,468 PP&E 3,352 6,314 7,568 7,730 7,981 8,361 Right-of-use assets 215 241 268 212 195 194 Deferred income tax 450 712 1,239 1,376 1,648 1,991 Intangibles 2,547 4,710 10,520 12,814 15,571 18,903 Goodwill 27 38 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 Other non-current assets 8,808 7,681 8,498 9,632 11,364 13,633 Total assets 53,625 66,366 89,801 99,765 119,446 144,364

Current liabilities 19,083 23,805 26,180 31,504 37,743 41,286 Short-term borrowings 23 94 319 568 734 546 Account payables 6,117 10,276 11,803 17,127 19,219 20,798 Tax payable 209 384 586 651 779 941 Other current liabilities 3,418 5,577 7,491 6,514 9,055 9,386 Contract liabilities 8,317 6,220 4,291 4,767 5,708 6,898 Accrued expenses 999 1,253 1,690 1,878 2,248 2,717 Non-current liabilities 9,717 10,021 19,693 17,975 21,629 29,195 Long-term borrowings 5,835 3,946 12,973 10,599 12,956 18,881 Bond payables 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deferred income 4 1 487 487 487 487 Other non-current liabilities 3,877 6,074 6,233 6,890 8,186 9,827 Total liabilities 28,800 33,826 45,873 49,480 59,371 70,481

Share capital 530 534 725 725 725 725 Retained earnings 8,776 13,895 18,802 25,361 35,485 49,764 Other reserves 15,061 16,653 18,200 18,231 18,231 18,231 Total shareholders equity 24,367 31,082 37,726 44,317 54,440 68,720 Minority interest 458 1,458 6,202 5,969 5,635 5,163 Total equity and liabilities 53,625 66,366 89,801 99,765 119,446 144,364

CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation 4,466 6,533 5,845 7,697 11,727 16,605 Depreciation & amortization 730 1,071 1,567 2,445 3,029 3,771 Tax paid (433) (819) (436) (770) (1,173) (1,661) Change in working capital (3,409) (6,364) (6,766) (1,426) (8,394) (8,314) Others 1,012 1,152 1,923 (1,525) (1,357) (1,799) Net cash from operations 2,365 1,572 2,133 6,422 3,833 8,603

Investing Capital expenditure (1,980) (2,082) (2,262) (4,099) (5,103) (6,228) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments (81) (173) (2,792) 0 0 0 Net proceeds from disposal of short-term investments

3 0 275 0 0 0

Others 0 8 850 1,237 1,388 1,592 Net cash from investing (2,058) (2,248) (3,929) (2,862) (3,715) (4,636)

Financing Dividend paid (388) (617) (908) (921) (1,090) (1,573) Net borrowings 1,888 133 7,156 (2,125) 2,523 5,737 Proceeds from share issues 212 1,280 485 0 0 0 Others (66) (66) (126) (17) (48) (48) Net cash from financing 1,647 729 6,607 (3,063) 1,385 4,115

Net change in cash

Cash at the beginning of the year 10,261 12,347 12,385 17,183 17,685 19,193 Exchange difference 14 5 (14) 5 6 7 Cash at the end of the year 12,347 12,385 17,183 17,685 19,193 27,282

GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
YE 31 Dec

Revenue 50.3% 36.2% 30.9% 23.6% 29.1% 26.7% Gross profit 40.9% 42.3% 22.2% 22.2% 34.4% 30.8% Operating profit 55.1% 47.2% (11.4%) 32.7% 52.4% 41.6% Net profit 65.7% 44.2% (1.8%) 29.7% 52.1% 41.6%

PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
YE 31 Dec

Gross profit margin 41.1% 42.9% 40.1% 39.7% 41.3% 42.6% Operating margin 20.1% 21.8% 14.7% 15.8% 18.7% 20.9% Return on equity (ROE) 17.7% 20.3% 16.1% 17.5% 22.0% 25.0%

GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec Current ratio (x) 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.4

VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec P/E 87.8 61.1 62.6 48.5 31.9 22.5

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets.

Disclosures & Disclaimers

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CMBIGM Ratings

BUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months HOLD : Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months SELL : Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months NOT RATED : Stock is not rated by CMBIGM

OUTPERFORM : Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months MARKET-PERFORM : Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months UNDERPERFORM : Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months

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