招银国际_AIDC gen-sets growth on track; Attractive valuation after pullback_20261102.pdf

招银国际查看原文

摘要

1招银国际维持潍柴动力“买入”评级,A/H股目标价分别为38.9元/44.7港元。
2公司3Q26营收580亿元同比增1%,毛利率升至22.9%;
3AIDC柴油发电机组交付1300台环比大增,预计未来2-3年ASP保持韧性。
4电力业务占3Q26利润30%,成为核心增长驱动。
5当前5倍2026E EV/EBITDA低于历史均值,估值未反映AIDC增长潜力。
6预计2026/2027年调整后净利润148.5亿/174.1亿元,同比增35.8%/17.2%。

文本

2 Nov 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update

Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH) WeichaiCH)-AIDCPowergen-sets(2338growthHK/000338on

track; Attractive valuation after AIDC gen-sets growth on track; Attractive pullback valuation after pullback

In the post-results call, Weichai revealed that AIDC gen-sets delivery is on a good track and is confident of maintaining a resilient ASP due to the shortage over the coming 2-3 years. Power business (including non-AIDC) accounted for 30% of total profit in 3Q26, up from 25% in 9M26, which has served as a key earnings growth driver. For HDT engines, by leveraging the partnership with Sinotruk (3808 HK, BUY), FAW (000800 CH, NR) and Foton (600166 CH, NR), Weichai is confident of enjoying the growth of HDT export going forward. We continue to like Weichai given the solid outlook of AIDC gen-sets. Besides, trading at only 5x 2026E EV/EBITDA which is below the historical average of 6x, Weichai’s current valuation has yet to reflect AIDC gen-sets growth potential. Maintain BUY with unchanged SOTP-based TP of HK$44.7/RMB38.9 for Weichai H/A. Weichai remains a key pick in the Capital Goods sector.

China Capital Goods

12-mth Price Performance

 3Q26 results highlights: Weichai’s revenue grew 1% YoY to RMB58bn in 3Q26. Gross margin expanded 1.5ppts YoY to 22.9%. Affected by FX loss and fair value change, EBIT increased only 2% YoY to RMB5.1bn. Net profit dropped 9% YoY to RMB2.96bn, due to higher effective tax rate.

 AIDC gen-sets: Weichai revealed that sales volume of AIDC diesel gensets in 3Q26 reached 1.3k units, up from 500/800 units in 1Q/2Q26. For natural gas gen-sets, the delivery is expected to be only 200 units this year as Weichai has allocated the capacity for diesel gen-sets. Looking into 2027E, Weichai expects the ramp-up of gas gen-sets will be similar to that of diesel gen-sets in 2026. We maintain our gas gen-sets sales forecast of 2k units in 2027E, as we see the deal between Generac (GNRC, NR) and Amazon (AMZN US, BUY, covered by our internet team) offers good demand visibility.

Source: FactSet

 SOFC: Weichai maintained the target of 30MW capacity (phase one) to be completed by end-2026. Production is expected to be 15-20MW in 2027E, as time is needed for ramp-up. Weichai expects 200MW capacity (phase two) to be completed by end-2027E.

Earnings Summary - 2338 HK

(YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (RMB mn) 215,691 231,809 253,844 276,314 299,971

Related reports: Weichai Power - Generac & Amazon deal positive to Weichai – 17 Sep 2026 (link)

YoY growth (%) 0.8 7.5 9.5 8.9 8.6 Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) 11,403.3 10,930.8 14,849.5 17,408.9 20,636.5 EPS (Reported) (RMB) 1.31 1.25 1.70 2.00 2.37

Weichai Power - High visibility of AIDC gensets; SOFC to offer upside potential – 31 Aug 2026 (link)

YoY growth (%) 25.4 (4.1) 35.8 17.2 18.5 Consensus EPS (RMB) na na 1.69 2.22 2.67 P/E (x) 15.7 16.4 12.1 10.3 8.7 P/B (x) 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 Yield (%) 3.5 0.0 4.8 5.6 6.7 Net gearing (%) (38.8) (37.1) (43.9) (57.2) (73.5) Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates

Weichai Power – Net profit in 2Q26 +57% YoY helped by other income and expense control; Rising AIDC power contribution – 28 Aug 2026 (link)

Ceres Power – Key takeaways from London visit – 13 Jul 2026 (link)

PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk

1

Figure 1: Weichai 3Q26 financials

(RMB mn) 1Q25 1Q26 Chg (YoY) 2Q25 2Q26 Chg (YoY) 3Q25 3Q26 Chg (YoY) Revenue 57,464 62,563 9% 55,688 60,600 9% 57,419 58,008 1% Cost of sales -44,691 -49,155 10% -43,364 -47,572 10% -45,145 -44,733 -1% Gross profit 12,773 13,408 5% 12,324 13,028 6% 12,274 13,275 8% Other income 362 283 -22% 739 1,522 106% 260 169 -35% Other gains and losses -38 180 n/a -83 350 n/a 147 -228 n/a S&D expenses -3,237 -3,012 -7% -3,390 -3,016 -11% -3,300 -2,823 -14% Administrative expenses -4,091 -2,875 -30% -2,690 -2,621 -3% -2,435 -2,683 10%

  • R&D expenses -2,040 -2,010 -1% -2,096 -1,969 -6% -2,040 -2,024 -1% Taxes and surcharges -190 -238 25% -211 -239 13% -155 -217 40% Impairment loss of assets -570 -479 -16% -535 -327 -39% 253 -388 n/a EBIT 2,971 5,257 77% 4,058 6,728 66% 5,004 5,080 2% Other expenses -32 -19 -40% -33 -57 69% -21 -13 -38% Net finance cost 208 -364 n/a 261 -283 n/a 124 -243 n/a Share of profit of JV and associates -17 4 n/a -25 109 n/a 89 104 17% Pretax profit 3,129 4,878 56% 4,261 6,497 52% 5,196 4,929 -5% Income tax -308 -895 191% -519 -940 81% -907 -1,007 11% After tax profit 2,822 3,983 41% 3,742 5,557 49% 4,288 3,922 -9% MI -111 -897 708% -809 -941 16% -1,054 -965 -8% Net profit 2,711 3,086 14% 2,933 4,616 57% 3,234 2,957 -9%

Key ratios Chg (ppt) Chg (ppt) Chg (ppt) Gross margin 22.2% 21.4% -0.8 22.1% 21.5% -0.6 21.4% 22.9% 1.5

  • S&D expense ratio 5.6% 4.8% -0.8 6.1% 5.0% -1.1 5.7% 4.9% -0.9 Administrative expense ratio 7.1% 4.6% -2.5 4.8% 4.3% -0.5 4.2% 4.6% 0.4 R&D expense ratio 3.5% 3.2% -0.3 3.8% 3.2% -0.5 3.6% 3.5% -0.1 Effective tax rate 9.8% 18.3% 8.5 12.2% 14.5% 2.3 17.5% 20.4% 3.0

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 2: Key assumptions for Weichai

2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

(RMB mn) Revenue

HDT and machinery engine - - 59,917 63,606 67,545 Pow er related engine - - 18,027 32,620 47,354

Large bore engine - - 10,540 23,636 37,023 AIDC (diesel gen set) - - 8,008 13,453 18,322 AIDC (gas gen set) - - 804 8,040 16,080 Non-AIDC - - 1,728 2,143 2,621

Non-large bore pow er related engines - - 7,487 8,984 10,330 Diesel engines 59,409 64,025 77,944 96,226 114,899 Automobiles and major components 61,838 70,803 73,688 76,685 79,098 Forklift trucks & supply chain solution 88,777 91,131 95,688 98,558 101,515 Agricultural machinery 18,546 19,169 20,127 21,133 22,190 Intersegment sales -12,879 -13,318 -13,603 -16,288 -17,731

Total revenue 215,691 231,809 253,844 276,314 299,971

Growth (YoY)

Diesel engines -2.2% 7.8% 21.7% 23.5% 19.4% Automobiles and major components -5.0% 14.5% 4.1% 4.1% 3.1% Forklift trucks & supply chain solution 1.4% 2.7% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% Agricultural machinery 14.5% 3.4% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Intersegment sales -17.6% 3.4% 2.1% 19.7% 8.9%

Average 0.8% 7.5% 9.5% 8.9% 8.6%

Segment profit

Diesel engines 10,395 10,608 11,769 16,840 21,256 Automobiles and major components 563 1,420 2,284 2,301 2,215 Forklift trucks & supply chain solution 5,971 3,869 6,028 6,111 6,294 Agricultural machinery 796 801 966 1,014 1,065 Intersegment sales -611 -1,302 -1,292 -1,303 -1,507 Total segment profit 17,115 15,396 19,756 24,962 29,323

Growth (YoY)

Diesel engines 34.7% 2.1% 10.9% 43.1% 26.2% Automobiles and major components -5.2% 152.2% 60.9% 0.7% -3.7% Forklift trucks & supply chain solution 21.4% -35.2% 55.8% 1.4% 3.0% Agricultural machinery 18.7% 0.7% 20.6% 5.0% 5.0% Intersegment sales -25.7% 113.3% -0.8% 0.8% 15.7% Average 30.8% -10.0% 28.3% 26.4% 17.5%

Segment margin

Diesel engines 17.5% 16.6% 15.1% 17.5% 18.5% Automobiles and major components 0.9% 2.0% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% Forklift trucks & supply chain solution 6.7% 4.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% Agricultural machinery 4.3% 4.2% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%

Average 7.9% 6.6% 7.8% 9.0% 9.8%

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 3: KION’s guidance for 2026E
Figure 4: KION’s quarterly financials

2024 2025 2026E guidance (Oct) 2026E guidance (Jul)

3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26

(EUR mn) Low-end High-end Low-end High-end Order intake 10,321 11,705 - - - -

(EUR mn) Order intake 2,676 2,823 2,985 2,809 2,651

Growth (YoY) -5% 13% - - - Revenue 11,503 11,297 11,450 11,750 11,525 12,025 Growth (YoY) 1% -2% 1% 4% 2% 6% Adjusted EBIT 917 789 815 875 880 980

Growth (YoY) 10% 0% 10% -20% -1% Revenue 2,704 3,097 2,771 2,916 2,835 Growth (YoY) 0% 1% -1% 8% 5% Adjusted EBIT 190 213 205 224 203

Growth (YoY) -14% -15% 5% 19% 7% Adjusted EBIT margin 7.0% 6.9% 7.4% 7.7% 7.2% Net income 119 73 92 115 102

Growth (YoY) 16% -14% 3% 11% 12% 24% Adjusted EBIT margin 8.0% 7.0% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 8.1% Net income 370 240 - - - -

Growth (YoY) 61% -36% n/a 22% -15%

Growth (YoY) 18% -35% - - - -

Source: Company data, CMBIGM

Source: Company data, CMBIGM

Figure 5: SOTP valuation

SOTP valuation Valuation methodology Target multiple

EBITDA Estimated EV Net cash / (Net debt)

Equity value Equity value breakdown

(x) 2026E (RMB mn) (RMB mn) (RMB mn)

Weichai traditional business EV/EBITDA 10.0 14,844 148,435 39,100 187,535 55.2% Weichai power engines EV/EBITDA 35.0 4,326 151,423 - 151,423 44.6% KION Group Proportionate market value - - - - 21,408 6.3% Ballard Power Systems Proportionate market value - - - - 905 0.3% Ceres Power Proportionate market value - - - - 1,627 0.5% Share of JV/associates P/B 2.8 - - - 15,482 4.6% Minority interest in core business -38,843 -11.4% Total NAV 339,538 100.0% NAV per share (RMB) 38.9

H discount to A 0% NAV per share (HK$) 44.7

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

  • Note 1: Weichai owns 46.5% interest in KION, 20% interest in Ballard Power and ~17.8% interest in Ceres Power.
  • Note 2: Share of JV/associates excludes Ballard Power and Ceres Power

Key risks: 1) lower-than-expected AIDC capex; 2) unexpected slowdown in HDT engine demand; 3) increase in raw material costs.

Financial Summary

INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 213,958 215,691 231,809 253,844 276,314 299,971 Cost of goods sold (168,842) (167,305) (182,027) (199,267) (215,525) (232,478) Gross profit 45,116 48,386 49,782 54,576 60,789 67,494 Operating expenses (31,238) (30,368) (33,681) (32,840) (35,050) (37,398) Operating profit 13,878 18,018 16,101 21,737 25,739 30,096 Share of (losses)/profits of associates/JV (13) (45) (51) 219 223 227 EBITDA 25,867 30,744 29,699 35,708 41,697 46,141 Depreciation 11,989 12,726 13,598 13,971 15,958 16,045 Interest income 2,818 3,781 3,561 2,953 2,825 3,537 Interest expense (3,378) (4,011) (3,107) (1,289) (1,292) (1,296) Net Interest income/(expense) (560) (231) 454 1,664 1,533 2,242 Other income/expense (154) (421) (291) (254) (276) (300) Pre-tax profit 13,151 17,322 16,214 23,367 27,218 32,265 Income tax (1,940) (3,044) (2,534) (4,206) (4,899) (5,808) Minority interest (2,198) (2,874) (2,750) (4,311) (4,910) (5,821) Adjusted net profit 9,014 11,403 10,931 14,849 17,409 20,636

BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 197,925 184,750 186,524 193,328 232,767 243,624 Cash & equivalents 92,857 72,067 68,713 78,941 97,613 123,470 Account receivables 23,754 30,877 34,355 18,500 45,090 17,370 Inventories 37,930 35,675 35,236 47,747 42,006 54,807 Prepayment 1,691 1,368 1,412 1,331 1,250 1,169 Other current assets 41,693 44,762 46,808 46,808 46,808 46,808 Non-current assets 136,322 159,130 180,952 176,556 171,675 167,208 PP&E 44,073 47,301 53,667 50,447 46,828 43,708 Investment in JVs & assos 5,175 4,915 5,435 5,529 5,625 5,723 Intangibles 23,071 22,205 22,063 20,793 19,436 17,991 Goodwill 24,858 24,561 25,269 25,269 25,269 25,269 Other non-current assets 39,145 60,148 74,517 74,517 74,517 74,517 Total assets 334,247 343,879 367,475 369,883 404,442 410,832

Current liabilities 146,215 154,839 161,534 151,126 171,978 162,009 Short-term borrowings 16,949 22,772 15,915 16,015 16,115 16,215 Account payables 60,127 58,033 68,037 57,529 78,281 68,212 Other current liabilities 69,139 74,034 77,583 77,583 77,583 77,583 Non-current liabilities 75,346 67,081 74,879 74,879 74,879 74,879 Long-term borrowings 26,745 15,633 18,248 18,248 18,248 18,248 Other non-current liabilities 48,601 51,448 56,632 56,632 56,632 56,632 Total liabilities 221,561 221,921 236,413 226,006 246,858 236,888

Total shareholders equity 79,335 86,696 93,190 101,695 110,491 121,030 Minority interest 33,351 35,262 37,872 42,183 47,093 52,914 Total equity and liabilities 334,247 343,879 367,475 369,883 404,442 410,832
CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation 13,151 17,322 16,214 23,367 27,218 32,265 Depreciation & amortization 11,909 12,668 13,438 13,890 15,877 15,964 Tax paid (1,940) (3,044) (2,534) (4,206) (4,899) (5,808) Change in working capital 6,089 (6,811) 6,764 (7,164) (97) 4,850 Others (1,738) 5,959 (5,201) 1,150 1,150 1,150 Net cash from operations 27,471 26,094 28,682 27,037 39,249 48,421

Investing Capital expenditure (4,633) (6,600) (6,670) (9,400) (10,900) (11,400) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments (156) (584) (855) 0 0 0

Others (947) (21,727) (9,103) 125 127 129 Net cash from investing (5,737) (28,911) (16,628) (9,275) (10,773) (11,271)

Financing Dividend paid (4,175) (7,769) (9,373) (6,345) (8,613) (10,097) Net borrowings (969) (5,289) (4,244) 100 100 100 Proceeds from share issues 92 0 0 0 0 0 Others (7,977) (780) (4,704) (1,289) (1,292) (1,296) Net cash from financing (13,029) (13,838) (18,320) (7,534) (9,805) (11,293)

Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 70,842 92,857 72,067 68,713 78,941 97,613 Exchange difference 13,310 (4,135) 2,913 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 92,857 72,067 68,713 78,941 97,613 123,470

GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
YE 31 Dec

Revenue 22.2% 0.8% 7.5% 9.5% 8.9% 8.6% Gross profit 44.8% 7.2% 2.9% 9.6% 11.4% 11.0% Operating profit 153.1% 29.8% (10.6%) 35.0% 18.4% 16.9% EBITDA 55.5% 18.9% (3.4%) 20.2% 16.8% 10.7% Adj. net profit 83.8% 26.5% (4.1%) 35.8% 17.2% 18.5%

PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
YE 31 Dec

Gross profit margin 21.1% 22.4% 21.5% 21.5% 22.0% 22.5% Operating margin 6.5% 8.4% 6.9% 8.6% 9.3% 10.0% EBITDA margin 12.1% 14.3% 12.8% 14.1% 15.1% 15.4% Adj. net profit margin 4.2% 5.3% 4.7% 5.8% 6.3% 6.9%

GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
YE 31 Dec

Net debt to equity (x) (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.7) Current ratio (x) 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Receivable turnover days 38.5 46.2 51.4 38.0 42.0 38.0 Inventory turnover days 77.1 80.3 71.1 76.0 76.0 76.0 Payable turnover days 114.2 128.9 126.4 115.0 115.0 115.0

VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
YE 31 Dec

P/E 19.7 15.7 16.4 12.1 10.3 8.7 P/B 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 Div yield (%) 2.5 3.5 0.0 4.8 5.6 6.7

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets.

Disclosures & Disclaimers

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CMBIGM Ratings

BUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months HOLD : Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months SELL : Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months NOT RATED : Stock is not rated by CMBIGM

OUTPERFORM : Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months MARKET-PERFORM : Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months UNDERPERFORM : Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months

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