2 Nov 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update

Mindray (300760 CH) Overseas growth remained solid; domestic recovery should

Mindray (300760 CH)

Overseas growth remained solid; domestic broaden in 2027E recovery should broaden in 2027E

Target Price RMB214.84

Mindray reported 3Q26 revenue of RMB9,350mn (+2.9% YoY; +6.0% currencyneutral), taking 9M26 revenue to RMB27.1bn (+4.9% YoY; +7.4% currency-neutral). Net profit declined 2.5% YoY to RMB2,517mn in 3Q26 and 3.2% YoY to RMB7,564mn in 9M26, mainly reflecting FX losses and higher component costs. Excluding FX, net profit grew 1.8% YoY in 3Q26 and 6.3% YoY in 9M26. With domestic destocking being largely completed by year-end and overseas momentum maintained, we expect Mindray’s growth to accelerate into 2027E.

(Previous TP RMB204.94)

Up/Downside 18.2% Current Price RMB181.75

China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA

 Overseas business remained the main growth driver. Overseas revenue reached RMB14.4bn in 9M26, up 11.0% YoY, or 16.0% YoY in USD terms, accounting for 53% of total revenue. Revenue from Europe increased ~20% YoY thanks to the rapid growth in the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Latin America and APAC revenue grew ~18% and ~14% YoY, respectively, where India, Mexico and Brazil etc. all reported robust growth. In addition, Mindray expanded cooperation with a major US IDN from monitoring and anaesthesia to ultrasound recently, which should provide incremental support to its growth in America from 2027E, in our view. Overseas IVD remained strong, which increased ~20% YoY in 9M26, with immunoassay up more than 30%. Mindray received 35 new TLA orders and completed 20 TLA installations in 9M26, which we expect to drive continued rapid growth of overseas IVD business.

(852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk

Cathy WANG

(852) 3916 1729 cathywang@cmbi.com.hk

Stock Data

Mkt Cap (RMB mn) 220,361.2 Avg 3 mths t/o (RMB mn) 1,449.2 52w High/Low (RMB) 215.04/133.98 Total Issued Shares (mn) 1212.4

Source: FactSet

Shareholding Structure

 Domestic business was resilient despite a higher base in 3Q25. Domestic revenue declined ~1% YoY to RMB4.5bn in 3Q26 but rose 2.0% QoQ. Within this, domestic IVD grew 4% QoQ while immunoassay increased 7% QoQ. Mindray’s combined share in chemistry, immunoassay and coagulation has increased from 10% in 1H25 to 15% in 3Q26, according to the Company. Domestic TLA new orders and installations were nearly 400 and 300 in 9M26, respectively, which have surpassed the total in FY25. We think these will support future reagent volume growth. Moreover, domestic emerging business reported revenue growth of 20% YoY in 9M26. As channel destocking is expected to largely complete by year-end, we expect domestic growth to improve in 2027E, led by IVD share gains and continued expansion in emerging businesses.

Smartco Development Limited 27.0% Magnifice (HK) Limited 24.5%

Source: SZSE

Share Performance

Absolute Relative 1-mth 12.7% 23.2% 3-mth 12.5% 28.4% 6-mth 7.9% 30.2%

Source: FactSet

12-mth Price Performance

 Emerging businesses are becoming a more meaningful growth contributor. Revenue from emerging businesses grew 20.5% YoY to RMB4.7bn in 9M26, and reached 17.5% of total sales. Minimally invasive surgery and intervention both grew more than 20% YoY, with surgical high-value consumables more than doubled and PFA procedures exceeded 10,000 in 9M26. We see emerging businesses as an increasingly important driver of Mindray’s medium-term earnings growth.

Source: FactSet

 Maintain BUY. We roll forward our DCF model to 2027E-34E from 2026E-34E, as valuation is increasingly anchored on 2027E. We cut our earnings forecasts modestly to reflect raw-material cost pressure. Therefore, we derive our TP of RMB214.84 based on an 8-year DCF model. Key risks include FX volatility, IVD pricing pressure, weaker hospital procurement and slower overseas expansion.

Earnings Summary

(YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (RMB mn) 36,726 33,282 35,909 39,615 43,676

YoY growth (%) 5.1 (9.4) 7.9 10.3 10.3 Attributable net profit (RMB mn) 11,668 8,136 7,871 9,339 10,415

YoY growth (%) 0.7 (30.3) (3.3) 18.7 11.5 EPS (Reported) (RMB) 9.64 6.71 6.49 7.70 8.59 P/E (x) 18.9 27.1 28.0 23.6 21.2 Net gearing (%) (46.4) (46.4) (49.2) (52.5) (55.9) Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates

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Figure 1: Earnings revision New Old Diff (%)

RMB mn FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 35,909 39,615 43,676 35,909 39,460 43,524 0.00% 0.39% 0.35% Gross profit 21,300 23,377 25,752 21,300 23,343 25,721 0.00% 0.15% 0.12% Operating profit 10,445 11,999 13,367 10,445 12,052 13,471 0.00% -0.44% -0.77% Net profit 7,871 9,339 10,415 7,871 9,381 10,497 0.00% -0.45% -0.78% EPS (RMB) 6.49 7.70 8.59 6.49 7.74 8.66 0.00% -0.45% -0.78% Gross margin 59.32% 59.01% 58.96% 59.32% 59.16% 59.10% 0ppt -0.15ppt -0.14ppt Operating margin 29.09% 30.29% 30.61% 29.09% 30.54% 30.95% 0ppt -0.25ppt -0.35ppt Net margin 21.92% 23.57% 23.85% 21.92% 23.77% 24.12% 0ppt -0.2ppt -0.27ppt

Source: CMBIGM estimates

Figure 2: Risk-adjusted DCF valuation DCF Valuation (in RMB mn) 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E

EBIT 11,228 12,488 13,926 15,553 17,422 19,541 21,984 24,809 Tax rate 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% EBIT*(1-tax rate) 9,544 10,615 11,837 13,220 14,809 16,610 18,687 21,088 + D&A 1,851 1,838 1,838 1,831 1,814 1,794 1,768 1,736

• - Change in working capital -313 -301 -293 -311 -632 -702 -798 -909
• - Capex -2,362 -2,262 -2,162 -2,062 -1,962 -1,862 -1,762 -1,662

FCFF 8,720 9,891 11,221 12,678 14,029 15,840 17,895 20,254 Terminal value 342,384

Terminal growth rate 3.0% WACC 9.1% Cost of Equity 12.3% Cost of Debt 3.8% Equity Beta 0.90 Risk Free Rate 2.8% Market Risk Premium 10.5% Target Debt to Asset ratio 35.0% Effective Corporate Tax Rate 15.0%

Terminal value 170,663 Total PV 242,862 Net debt -24,201 Minority interest 6,580 Equity value 260,483 # of shares (mn) 1,212 DCF per share (in RMB) 214.84

Source: CMBIGM estimates

Figure 3: Sensitivity analysis (RMB)

Source: CMBIGM estimates

Figure 4: CMBIGM estimates vs consensus

CMBIGM Consensus Diff (%)

RMB mn FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue 35,909 39,615 43,676 35,643 39,560 44,078 0.75% 0.14% -0.91%

• Gross profit 21,300 23,377 25,752 21,300 23,701 26,497 0.00% -1.36% -2.81% Operating profit 10,445 11,999 13,367 10,209 11,523 12,972 2.31% 4.13% 3.05% Net profit 7,871 9,339 10,415 8,382 9,583 10,830 -6.10% -2.55% -3.83% EPS (RMB) 6.49 7.70 8.59 6.89 7.87 8.90 -5.82% -2.07% -3.51% Gross margin 59.32% 59.01% 58.96% 59.76% 59.91% 60.11% -0.44ppt -0.9ppt -1.15ppt Operating margin 29.09% 30.29% 30.61% 28.64% 29.13% 29.43% +0.45ppt +1.16ppt +1.18ppt Net margin 21.92% 23.57% 23.85% 23.52% 24.22% 24.57% -1.6ppt -0.65ppt -0.72ppt

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates

Financial Summary

INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 34,932 36,726 33,282 35,909 39,615 43,676 Cost of goods sold (12,513) (13,548) (13,208) (14,609) (16,238) (17,925)

• Gross profit 22,419 23,178 20,074 21,300 23,377 25,752 Selling expense (5,010) (5,283) (5,145) (5,386) (5,863) (6,420) Admin expense (1,524) (1,600) (1,551) (1,652) (1,783) (1,922) R&D expense (3,433) (3,666) (3,579) (3,699) (4,041) (4,411) Others 489 (1) (127) (522) 186 247 Gain/loss on financial assets at FVTPL 79 126 0 0 0 0 Investment gain/loss (10) 69 115 115 115 115 Other gains/(losses) 60 287 6 288 6 6 Operating profit 13,070 13,112 9,795 10,445 11,999 13,367 Others (59) (92) (121) (121) (121) (121) Pre-tax profit 13,011 13,020 9,674 10,324 11,878 13,246 Income tax (1,433) (1,280) (1,222) (1,549) (1,782) (1,987) Minority interest 4 (71) (316) (905) (757) (844) Attributable net profit 11,582 11,668 8,136 7,871 9,339 10,415 Adjusted net profit 11,434 11,442 8,069 7,858 9,326 10,402

BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 26,875 25,647 27,410 30,645 34,937 39,794 Cash & equivalents 18,787 16,644 17,690 20,597 24,205 28,376 Account receivables 3,297 3,226 3,410 3,383 3,515 3,636 Inventories 3,979 4,757 5,004 5,358 5,911 6,476 Prepayment 268 297 273 273 273 273 Other current assets 545 722 1,033 1,033 1,033 1,033 Non-current assets 21,065 30,997 31,857 33,377 34,482 35,500 PP&E 5,490 7,086 7,670 8,199 8,333 8,378 Deferred income tax 1,313 1,697 1,567 1,567 1,567 1,567 Intangibles 2,225 6,723 6,390 5,739 5,078 4,406 Goodwill 5,062 11,093 11,404 11,404 11,404 11,404 Other non-current assets 6,976 4,397 4,825 6,468 8,101 9,745 Total assets 47,940 56,644 59,267 64,021 69,419 75,294

Current liabilities 10,103 10,427 11,600 11,695 12,067 12,452 Short-term borrowings 8 5 0 0 0 0 Account payables 2,690 2,793 3,242 3,337 3,710 4,095 Tax payable 653 428 385 385 385 385 Other current liabilities 6,751 7,202 7,972 7,972 7,972 7,972 Non-current liabilities 4,491 5,458 4,656 4,656 4,656 4,656 Long-term borrowings 1 0 4 4 4 4 Deferred income 109 127 182 182 182 182 Other non-current liabilities 4,381 5,331 4,470 4,470 4,470 4,470 Total liabilities 14,594 15,885 16,255 16,351 16,723 17,108

Share capital 1,212 1,212 1,212 1,212 1,212 1,212 Capital surplus 608 608 608 608 608 608 Others 31,265 34,036 36,273 40,028 44,296 48,942 Total shareholders equity 33,085 35,856 38,093 41,848 46,117 50,762 Minority interest 261 4,902 4,918 5,823 6,580 7,424 Total equity and liabilities 47,940 56,644 59,267 64,021 69,419 75,294

CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation 11,578 11,740 8,451 8,776 10,096 11,259 Depreciation & amortization 1,039 1,503 1,747 1,817 1,851 1,838 Tax paid (1,433) (1,280) (1,222) (1,549) (1,782) (1,987) Change in working capital (1,652) (727) (439) (232) (313) (301)

• Others 1,528 1,196 1,608 1,774 1,538 1,634 Net cash from operations 11,062 12,432 10,145 10,586 11,390 12,444

Investing Capital expenditure (2,689) (1,959) (2,038) (2,000) (1,900) (1,800) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments (871) (5,773) 0 0 0 0

• Others 2,867 350 1,528 (462) (462) (462) Net cash from investing (693) (7,383) (509) (2,462) (2,362) (2,262)

Financing Dividend paid (10,670) (8,843) (5,743) (5,217) (5,421) (6,011) Net borrowings (19) (3) (3) 0 0 0 Proceeds from share issues 79 79 36 0 0 0 Others (166) (114) (1,014) 0 0 0 Net cash from financing (10,776) (8,882) (6,724) (5,217) (5,421) (6,011)

Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 18,974 18,668 14,908 17,690 20,597 24,205 Exchange difference 101 72 (195) 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 18,668 14,908 17,625 20,597 24,205 28,376

GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec

Revenue 15.0% 5.1% (9.4%) 7.9% 10.3% 10.3% Gross profit 15.1% 3.4% (13.4%) 6.1% 9.8% 10.2% Operating profit 18.9% 0.3% (25.3%) 6.6% 14.9% 11.4% Net profit 20.6% 0.7% (30.3%) (3.3%) 18.7% 11.5% Adj. net profit 20.0% 0.1% (29.5%) (2.6%) 18.7% 11.5%

PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec

Gross profit margin 64.2% 63.1% 60.3% 59.3% 59.0% 59.0% Operating margin 37.4% 35.7% 29.4% 29.1% 30.3% 30.6% Adj. net profit margin 32.7% 31.2% 24.2% 21.9% 23.5% 23.8% Return on equity (ROE) 35.6% 33.9% 22.0% 19.7% 21.2% 21.5%

GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec

Net debt to equity (x) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) Current ratio (x) 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.2 Receivable turnover days 31.1 32.4 36.4 34.4 32.4 30.4 Inventory turnover days 116.7 117.7 134.9 133.9 132.9 131.9 Payable turnover days 72.6 73.9 83.4 83.4 83.4 83.4

VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

YE 31 Dec

P/E 19.0 18.9 27.1 28.0 23.6 21.2 P/E (diluted) 19.0 18.9 27.1 28.0 23.6 21.2 P/B 20.6 19.9 18.0 17.9 17.4 16.9 Div yield (%) 3.2 3.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.1

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets.

Disclosures & Disclaimers

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CMBIGM Ratings

BUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months HOLD : Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months SELL : Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months NOT RATED : Stock is not rated by CMBIGM

OUTPERFORM : Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months MARKET-PERFORM : Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months UNDERPERFORM : Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months

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