中银国际研究_工业:华测检测投资者日活动纪要:从市场规模红利转向运营效能红利_20261016.pdf

中银国际研究2026-10-16

摘要

1中银国际发布华测检测投资者日纪要,指出TIC行业尾部出清加速向龙头集中。
2公司规划2026-2030年收入CAGR达13%-16%,净利率目标提升至15%。
3管理层明确Capex拐点,2027年底后停止新建基地,自由现金流将投向分红与并购。
4医药医学与半导体检测板块预计2027年同步扭亏。
5各业务线指引清晰,大消费、汽车航空及数字信任等战略增长板块有望驱动运营效能红利释放,股东回报路径升级。

工业 – 综合工业 | 消息快報 2026 年 10 月 6 日

华测检测投资者日活动纪 要: 从市场规模红利转向运 营效能红利

我们近日参加华测检测在深圳举办的投资日活动, 和公司总裁及 15 位不同业务线的经理分别交流公司近况和远期发展目标, 我们 有以下详细收获:

 当前行业背景: 中国 TIC(检测、检验、认证)行业在十四五末统计全国注册经 营的约 5 万家检测机构中,仅 15.4%的企业(年收入≥1,000 万元,约 8,000 余 家)贡献了全行业 82.4%的营收(4,367 亿元);叠加生态环境部等五部委联合 整治 6,000 余家环境机构造假、认监委拟将认证机构从 1,100 余家压减至 400 家 (如限制审核员年均人日上限 188 天),尾部出清加速向龙头集中。

 2026-2030 年主要增长目标: 集团规划未来四年收入 CAGR 达 13%–16%,其 中内生增长贡献 8%–10%,战略并购每年贡献 5–6 个百分点(约占 2030 年新 增收入的 1/3;集团净利率目标至 2030 年稳步提升至 15%,经营性现金流增速 持续跑赢收入与利润。

 Capex 拐点与股东回报升级路径:目前低息与重资产项目拉低了 ROE(维持在

15%左右)。管理层表示成都与深圳基地(2027 年底)建成后全面停止新建基 地,并将设备 Capex 严格控制在收入的 7%–9%,释放出的自由现金流将全面 投向分红、并购及少数股权回购,并适度运用低息债务与科创债工具放大资金效 率。

 争取两大战略培育板块 2027 年同步扭亏: 前期重投入的医药医学与半导体芯片 检测(蔚思博)均于 2025–2026 年实现大幅减亏,并努力实现 2027 年同步实 现扭亏为盈,2030 年净利率目标均达 10% 以上,降低这两个板块对集团利润率 拖累。

 分部门业绩指引:见下表。

中银国际证券有限公司 工业 – 综合工业

王卓然, CFA

(852) 3988 6416 zhuoran.wang@bocigroup.com

蔡美琦

(852) 3988 6425 maggiemq.cai@bocigroup.com

图 1. 分部门业绩指引 业务事业部 2026-2030 指引 基本盘战略 增长与出海战略 大消费品 轻纺收入 CAGR 15%;芯片收

中心化学实验室毛利率 >80%;关停台 湾亏损芯片实验室,蔚思博高毛利测 试占比由 35%升至 53%,2027 年扭亏

11 个可靠性实验室切入光模块、液冷及 AI 服务 器;升级沪杭实验室布局具身智能机器人,低轨 卫星、建立深圳体育基地及越南实验室

入 CAGR 17%

食农及健康 收入 CAGR >15%;宠物/营养/

政府抽检占比由 33%主动降至 23%; 8%大客户贡献 70%营收,向瑞幸、蜜 雪冰城等延伸

宠物检测(1 亿→2 亿,CAGR >16%)、健康营养 与特医(1.5 亿+,CAGR 18%);布局银发经济,借 南非、新加坡及南美秘鲁检验进入全球农产品市 场

日化各冲刺 2 亿元

医药及医学 2030 年收入 >10 亿元 (CAGR >20%);2027 年扭 亏,净利率~10%

收缩传统临床与大健康低效业务;功 能医学稳固国内 80% 市场份额;收购 东南亚猴场锁定战略猴源(过去一年 猴价由 6 万涨至 20 万+)

受益创新药 BD 出海,26 年医药签单 +118%;昆 山 GLP 扩建产能翻倍;推进欧盟 MDR 器械公告机 构并购(26Q4 签约),布局类器官(NAMs)与脑 机接口

汽车与航空 收入 CAGR 12.5%、利润

绑定车企研发端,22–25 年人数仅增 12.8%而订单翻倍

车载电子与 EMC 产值破亿;切入商发 CJ-1000A 高 温合金产线(航空材料 26 年产值>5,000 万), 比亚 迪匈牙利、吉利宝腾、VinFast 及沙特 Ceer;开展 L3 线控、GNSS 强标及货运无人机

14.4%;新投项目 CAGR ~20%

电子科技 收入 CAGR 13%、利润 15%; 运营利润率 20%

深圳基地三班倒降本 27 年设计、28 年投产 兆瓦级(MW) AI 服务器与

构网型储能大电力实验室 环境检测 收入 CAGR 5%–7%;严控现

裁撤 3 个低效实验室,拒接市县级财 政不佳项目;耗材占比由 9%+降至 7%,近 300 辆生产车推进新能源化

排污许可下 7 万家联网企业、35 万台自动监测运 维(650 亿刚需);三普后转向土壤酸化治理与 耕地评估;建成 6 大新污染物中心

金流与应收风险

工程与工业 内生收入 CAGR 12.8%,利润 翻倍;应收<200 天,长周期 ≤40%

退出下行建材与房建垫资业务,坏账 冲回释放利润

借南非 NOSA 服务中资非洲/中东矿业

海事与数字 信任

海事:30 年 4 亿(CAGR 17%);数字信任:内生 CAGR >15%(含并购>20%)

海事国内第一、全球第三(目标全球 第一);数字信任巩固电子认证(全 国 55 家 CA 牌照之一,工信部 10 月 30 日合规大考)与信创全过程咨询

全球 47%新船为双燃料,进入 LNG/绿醇/绿氨及天 然气实验室; 数字信任叠加“等保+密评+数安+个 保”客单价升 3–4 倍

来源:公司数据,中银国际证券

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